Flames vs Oilers Odds
| Flames Odds | +136 |
| Oilers Odds | -164 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
The Battle of Alberta heads outdoors on Sunday for the Heritage Classic between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames.
Each side limps into this matchup in the midst of a nightmare start to the season. Calgary owns a 2-5-1 record and sits in 30th place.
Shockingly enough, Edmonton's record is worse, and the team has only three points in seven games.
Edmonton is priced at -150 at the time of writing, prior to official confirmation of Connor McDavid's status for this matchup.
Find a betting prediction, preview and pick for Flames vs Oilers below.
Calgary Flames
Calgary continues to garner a ton of respect from oddsmakers despite not finding actual success over the last two seasons.
That was the case in Thursday's humiliating home loss to the Blues, which ended in a chorus of boos as the Flames dropped a fourth straight matchup.
Last year the Flames were unlucky in one-goal contests, games ending in 3-on-3 and shootouts. Two key offensive stars, Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri, also played poorly.
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Those flaws were potential reasons the team could improve this season, but that has not been the case early on as Kadri and Huberdeau have both offered some notably poor play early this season. Each features concerning analytical profiles, and both have combined for only five points through eight games.
Defensively, Calgary should prevent high-quality chances at a better-than-average rate because of their elite top-four defensive corps. That has not been the case early on, however, as Calgary has allowed 3.67 xGA/60.
Rasmus Andersson will remain out of the lineup tonight as he serves the final game of his four-game suspension.
Jacob Markström will start in goal for the Flames. He owns a strong +1.6 GSAx in six games this season with a .906 save percentage.
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton was priced as one of the cofavorites to win the Stanley Cup this offseason after another reasonable performance last spring. All of the key pieces returned to the lineup, and as a result, the Oilers seemed like a safe bet to coast into the playoffs.
At 1-5-1, that has not been the case, and the Oilers have been downgraded to +1500 to win the cup this season by oddsmakers.
This could be an overreaction, and if you liked the Oilers entering the year, I would argue this start does not need to be taken as the end of the world.
The Oilers are breaking in a new in-zone defensive structure. As many teams are doing in an effort to copy cup champion Vegas, Edmonton is transitioning to a zone coverage as opposed to man-on-man in the defensive zone.
That change has drawn a ton of coverage from NHL media, and there have been some clear instances of growing pains leading to lapses in coverage. The Oilers have allowed a 3.20 xGA/60, which indicates their defensive play is more reasonable than the noise surrounding the team would suggest.
Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner have combined to own the league's worst save percentage on High Danger Chances Against. Shaky goaltending has certainly helped exaggerate defensive flaws, which could be viewed as a cause for optimism among Oilers faithful.
However, it is hard to say for sure that the tandem of Skinner and Campbell will trend toward average results this season. Skinner should still be viewed as the better starting option, and he will likely get the start Sunday. Skinner owns an ugly -5.5 GSAx and .846 save percentage in four games this season.
Connor McDavid looked great at practice last night and was a full participant. He is considered a game-time decision for this matchup.
Flames vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
This exciting matchup between bitter rivals is a huge moment for both sides early on. Each team has had a horrific start and will be looking at this as a win that could potentially provide a significant morale boost.
The Flames continue to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of their strong underlying profile and roster composition on paper.
But if Kadri and Huberdeau are in fact this far from being star players, their roster needs to be downgraded considerably. The potential is there for this offense to be well below average.
The Oilers have struggled to adjust to their new defensive zone strategy and are allowing a plethora of goals against. The greater concern is still their porous goaltending, which is drawing extra attention to any type of breakdown.
If they get somewhat reasonable goaltending moving forward, their defensive play will start to look closer to league average, which is what all analytical indicators suggest.
It seems likely that McDavid will skate in this matchup, and it also seems probable that Edmonton will start Skinner. As a result, Edmonton deserves to be a slightly larger favorite than -150, and betting the Oilers here should provide some value, but I certainly am not thrilled to bet a side on this matchup.
Leon Draisaitl is priced at -160 to record over 2.5 shots. That price is fair, but I am happy to move my target numbers over on that bet because of how Draisaitl continues to perform in these big moments. Betting him to score anytime at +115 could be another fun way to get some action on this matchup.
Playing NHL outdoor games to go under the total has become a popular trend. The games are often played in terrible ice conditions and at closer to a playoff-style intensity.
With a high total of 6.5 here I would not necessarily steer people off that idea, but it's worth considering that the temperature and humidity in Edmonton today should allow significantly better ice conditions than most outdoor games.
Picks: Edmonton Oilers ML (-150 at PointsBet) | Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 Shots (-160 at bet365) | Draisaitl Over 3.5 Shots (+134 at FanDuel)
