Flames vs. Senators Odds
| Flames Odds | +115 |
| Senators Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -120 / +100 |
Since suffering a 5-2 loss in the Heritage Classic, the Flames have bounced back with a strong run of play. They own a 2-1-1 record over the last four including a hard-fought shootout loss last night in Toronto. As regular starter Jacob Markstrom is injured and unlikely to play in this back-to-back spot, this should be a start for AHL standout Dustin Wolf.
The Senators enter six points back of a playoff spot in a year where a lengthy rebuild is finally supposed to pay dividends. They catch Calgary in a favorable spot here, and are priced as -145 favorites to claim two desperately needed points.
Let's preview Flames vs Senators on Saturday, November 11 and make a betting pick and prediction.
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Calgary Flames
Last season the Flames lost the most one goal games in the league, and also had the most games go to overtime or shootout. They also hit the most posts, and scored well below the pace their expected goals suggested. Jacob Markstrom wasn't great in goal either, and was viewed as another area of potential improvement should he find his top form.
The fact that some of those areas would naturally regress back to league average made them a trendy candidate to bounce-back this season, even though the majority of Calgary's roster remained the same. In the early going of this season the Flames simply were not playing at the same level as last year. Therefore none of those potential positive regression arguments held any weight.
Since being embarrassed in the Heritage Classic though, the Flames have rattled off four convincing performances. They own a 53.7% over the last four, three of which have come against playoff teams from last season.
This turnaround in form has also coincided with the return of top defender Rasmus Andersson to the lineup. Andersson, Noah Hanifin, Mackenzie Weegar, and Chris Tanev compile two strong defensive units. When intact that is a clear edge over the vast majority of the league.
The problem is the true offensive star power of the roster remains lacking, largely due to the disappointing form offered by Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau. It seems likely the Flames will continue to struggle to capitalize on scoring chances at a league average or better rate. If their team defensive play can continue to stabilize as we should expect, that should mean a lot of close, hard-fought contests.
Dustin Wolf will likely make his first NHL start of the season Saturday. He played to a +1.4 GSAx and .958 save % in his only appearance last year. In six AHL appearances he owns a .924 save %.
Ottawa Senators
It feels like it has gotten late early for the Senators, who enter this matchup last in the Eastern Conference. Since losing top defender Thomas Chabot to injury they have lost three of five, and own an xGF% of 41.91.
Chabot's injury came at an especially bad time as two other mainstay NHL defenders were also sidelined in Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom. Zub returned Thursday, and Brannstrom is set to return tonight. Their returns to the lineup should help the Senators clean up their concerning defensive play thus far.
The Senators offense has clicked as expected, as they have generated goals at a third-best rate of 3.83 per game. Their shaky defensive play hasn't helped, but neither of their two goaltenders has taken the reigns and offered quality play.
Joonas Korpisalo is likely to start Saturday. He has played to a -1.5 GSAx and .901 save % in nine appearances this season.
Flames vs. Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Flames have put together four strong performances in a row, and have been rewarded with a 2-1-1 record. They are a team that I am not keen to fade right now.
Dustin Wolf has the potential to be a high quality goaltender at the NHL level this season. He was effective last year in a small sample, and his AHL form recently suggests he's likely furthered his development since that point. If there is one thing the Flames have actually been good at over the last year or so, it is finding ways to keep games close, especially games they should win easily or games they are favored to lose. Wolf should help that trend continue as road underdogs here.
This is a tough back-to-back spot though, and the Senators are another side that I believe is going to start displaying better form moving forward. It's hard for me to see either side really blowing this one open and winning comfortably, and we should see close score-lines throughout. When those kind of spots occur, I think it sets up for one of the better sweats in hockey, which is betting the game to go to overtime.
This game is priced at +380 to go to overtime on FanDuel, and I think anything better than +350 is worthy of a play.
Pick: Regulation Tie +380 (FanDuel)
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