Golden Knights vs Oilers Game 4: NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds

A pin drop was heard in Northern Alberta.

On Monday, the Vegas Golden Knights dismantled the Edmonton Oilers 5-1 at Rogers Place. Prior to that game, the Oilers beat the Knights in their home arena 5-1 as well. It’ll be interesting to see how both teams respond. Either Edmonton ties up the series, or Vegas goes up 3-1 heading back to Sin City.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction for Game 4 between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas got what it was looking for all postseason long: a Jonathan Marchessault breakout game. The team leader in goals this season netted two, along with typical contributors Jack Eichel and Chandler Stephenson. Captain Mark Stone has also been a huge part of the Knights’ success with 11 points in eight games.

The Knights have generated some real solid 5-on-5 opportunities this series. They rank first in expected goals with a 57.39 xGF%, although the power play could be better as it's only scoring 18% of the time.

Defensively, Vegas has been rock solid. The Knights have done a great job at 5-on-5 with a 2.31 xGA/60. The penalty kill is hard to judge since the Oilers are so good with the man advantage, though the Knights did stop Edmonton’s two chances, which is encouraging.

With Laurent Brossoit most likely out for the remainder of the postseason, it’s now up to Adin Hill in net. Hill looked real steady Monday, undeterred from Edmonton’s firepower. In relief, he stopped all 28 shots he faced and played to a +1.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

Edmonton Oilers

What else is left to be said about the Oilers? Despite the poor outing Monday, Edmonton is still the most dangerous team alive. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid ran roughshod over the Kings and made a dent in the Knights’ armor before Game 3. Evan Bouchard has proven to be an offensive force and Edmonton still hasn’t received a goal from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Uncharacteristically, Edmonton isn't generating a ton of even-strength offense. The Oilers are actually last in expected goals with a 42.61 xGF% and all their production comes from the powerplay. Edmonton went 0-2 on Monday, but is scoring a staggering 52% of the time with the man advantage.

Defensively, things haven’t been great. Edmonton is last with a 3.1 xGA/60, and the penalty kill has struggled at 72%.

I’m interested to see who coach Jay Woodcroft starts in net. He stuck with Stuart Skinner the last time he had a clunker, but his numbers aren’t particularly great. He’s playing to an .888 SV% with a -2.5 GSAx. Obviously stats don’t tell the whole story, but Skinner looked shaky in Game 3. Jack Campbell provided stability in relief of Skinner, stopping nine of 10 shots.

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Pick

Vegas is coming in as the heavy underdog, but, in my opinion, is playing like a favorite. While the Oilers are great at home, the Knights were among the best on the road with a 26-7-8 record.

This series, the only time Edmonton has generated legitimate offense is on the power play. Vegas has done an incredible job stifling the Oilers and Adin Hill looked like a brick wall. With that and Skinner and/or Campbell’s unreliable goaltending, I’m not feeling confident in the Oilers at home.

At +152, it’s hard to find better value than backing the Knights on the moneyline.

Pick: Golden Knights Moneyline

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