NHL Odds, Pick: Golden Knights vs Oilers Game 6 Preview and Prediction (May 14)

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 6 Odds

It's do-or-die time for the Edmonton Oilers as they host Game 6 of their second-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Oilers have never led in this series, but did erase 1-0 and 2-1 deficits before dropping a 4-3 decision in Vegas on Friday night.

There is precedent for the Oilers to come back. Just last year, they were down 3-2 in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings before winning the final two games to advance.

Can Edmonton to do it again? Here's a betting preview and pick for Golden Knights vs. Oilers Game 6.

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights' Game 5 win didn't come easily. Vegas was without key shutdown defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who was suspended one game for a Game 4 slash on Leon Draisaitl. After building a 4-2 lead in the second period, the Golden Knights hung on to earn the win, despite having to kill a five-minute boarding major to Keegan Kolesar against the NHL's most dominant power play.

Vegas bent, but didn't break. The Golden Knights limited the damage to one Connor McDavid goal during the five-minute penalty kill, then hung on to preserve the win.

Adin Hill had another strong outing in the Vegas net as he made 32 saves. After taking over for the injured Laurent Brossoit, Hill is 2-1 with a .927 save percentage, a 2.25 goals-against average and 0.8 goals saved above expected. The Golden Knights have also been better at controlling play at 5-on-5, logging 52.34% of expected goals through five games. However, that stat might not be especially meaningful in this series. The first four games were all one-sided and Edmonton's power play is so dominant that it can override an opponent's even-strength advantage.

In his first-ever playoffs, Jack Eichel is leading the way for Vegas with 13 points and Pietrangelo will be back in the lineup for Game 6.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers will also be getting a key defenseman back from a one-game suspension on Sunday. Darnell Nurse received the mandatory punishment after he was declared to be the instigator in a Game 4 fight with Nicolas Hague. An imposing physical presence, Nurse's No. 1 job is to make life miserable for Edmonton's opponents.

Presumably, Stuart Skinner will also return to his starting role for the Oilers. He was pulled after giving up four goals on 22 shots in 35:34 on Friday — the second time in the past three games (and third overall in the playoffs) that he's gotten the hook.

Skinner has come back strong each time he's been replaced. But the rookie, who was expected to play about 30 games this year, is now up to 61 appearances, including both the regular season and playoffs. He may be starting to wear down amidst such a heavy workload, but he successfully navigated a similar situation in his junior days. In the 2016-17 season, Skinner played 60 regular-season games and added 20 more in the playoffs. He followed that up with 82 total games on his way to a WHL championship with the Swift Current Broncos in 2017-18.

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Pick

The total scoring in this series is 17-17, but Game 5 is the first contest that was close.

Emotions are high on both sides, and Edmonton has been doing a good job of getting opportunities to execute its elite power play. The Oilers 9-for-22 through the first five games (40.9%), meaning more than half their goals have come with the man advantage.

To compare, Vegas is 4-for-22 (18.2%), but has outscored Edmonton 12-7 at 5-on-5.

So far in the second round, every team that has faced elimination has been able to push back and stay alive, even if just for a game. That desperation is what makes clinching games so difficult to win.

If the pattern holds, Edmonton will come out on top in Game 6 at home. But a moneyline of -184 doesn't offer much value for bettors. If you think Edmonton is going to run away with this, the puck line will deliver a +125 payout for a win by two or more goals.

If you think it's going to be close, you can get in on the Vegas puckline of +1.5 at a palatable -150 and if you think it's going to be really close, grab a regulation tie at a tasty +390, then cross your fingers for the first overtime game of the series.

Pick: Golden Knights +1.5 | Play to -165

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