Golden Knights vs. Oilers Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | +124 |
| Oilers Odds | -148 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -108 / -112 |
A modest two-game winning streak doesn't undo months of underachieving, but it's at least a welcome relief for the Edmonton Oilers.
After struggling to string together wins through the first six weeks of the season, the Oilers have finally built some positive momentum. The NHL's northern-most team ended a four-game road trip with a convincing 5-0 win over the Washington Capitals and then followed that up with an 8-2 shellacking of the Anaheim Ducks.
Next on the docket for the Oilers is a rematch of last year's second-round matchup against the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Knights unceremoniously knocked Edmonton out of the playoffs and went on to win their first Stanley Cup in team history.
Revenge will be on their minds, but there is more at play in backing this pick with our Oilers vs. Golden Knights prediction and betting angle?
Vegas Golden Knights
Scheduling-wise, the Golden Knights are in a precarious position.
The Pacific Division leaders enter Tuesday's intra-divisional affair on the second night of a back-to-back while playing their third game in four nights. With travel involved between every game, the Knights could be slowed down by having their bus legs underneath them.
However, things get much worse when we examine their status through the analytics lens.
Vegas' metrics are crumbling. The Knights have been outplayed in four of their past five, churning out a disappointing 46.9% expected goals-for rating over that sample.
Worse, the only time they posted a game score above 49.7% was hosting the lowly Arizona Coyotes on Saturday night. This five-game sample is indicative of what to expect from the Golden Knights over their coming games as they've overachieved relative to expected metrics.
Looking at their record, you would assume that Vegas is dictating on-ice play. But that isn't the case. The Knights sit 15th in expected goals-for rating this season, posting a marginally above-average 50.4% percentage – a deviation from their actual benchmark.
As it stands, the Golden Knights are operating at a 54.2% rating, good enough for eighth in the league. Ongoing regression is inevitable as the Knights' metrics balance over their coming games.
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Edmonton Oilers
Things couldn't have gone worse for Edmonton to start the season.
A dismal record, a new head coach, and constant trade chatter have been weighing down the team. Nevertheless, the Oilers look more comfortable adapting to Kris Knoblauch's systems and adjustments, resulting in green sprouts in their metrics.
Although there's been a relative decrease in their production, the Oilers have tidied up their defensive zone play. Most importantly, this has had a positive impact on Stuart Skinner.
After taking a few games to get up to speed, Edmonton has limited its past two opponents to a combined 11 high-danger chances, out-chancing them in both games. That's the fourth time in five games that the Oilers have delivered more quality opportunities than their opponents, a sign of things to come as they settle in on home ice against the Knights.
The most profound impact that's had is on Skinner's play. The Calder Trophy runner-up has stopped 46 of 48 shots faced over his past two starts, leading the Oilers to victory in both contests. Ongoing success between the pipes is anticipated as Skinner works his save percentage back toward career norms and gets improved support from his teammates.
That support isn't limited to defensive zone structure, either. The Oilers are well behind their expected benchmarks this season, implying they are progression candidates as output catches up with production. Their 38 goals at 5-on-5 are well off the pace of their second-rated 50.4 expected goals-for.
Likewise, the team shooting percentage has plummeted to 9.9% this year, down from last year's standard of 11.8%.
Whichever perspective you look from, the Oilers are due for more offensive outbursts.
Golden Knights vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Golden Knights haven't recorded a goal at 5-on-5 since Nov. 18.
More embarrassingly, they've been shut out twice over their last four games, highlighting the inevitable cracks we will see from them as their metrics balance out over the coming weeks.
That leaves a substantive edge in backing the home side in this one as the Oilers ride the momentum of their floodgates opening.
This line should tilt toward the Oilers as we approach puck drop, but playing it at -145 or better would be a +EV play.
Pick: Oilers -130 (PointsBet)
