Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | +130 |
| Stars Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -125 / +105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 2 on Wednesday, April 24 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
When the NHL and the NHLPA renegotiate the CBA in a couple of years, chances are a few teams will have pointed views on salary cap constraints in the postseason. When that time comes, the inevitable forthcoming changes should be dubbed the "Vegas Clause."
For the past two seasons, several notable Vegas Golden Knights players have gone down with injuries ahead of the trade deadline. That's allowed the expansion franchise to finagle its salary cap considerations and add marquee players at the deadline.
Then, by the time the playoffs roll around, the Knights no longer have to comply with the upper threshold of the salary cap, letting them ice a roster well above the $83.5 million ceiling.
Despite having home-ice advantage and entering the contest as favorites, the Dallas Stars fell victim to the Knights' strategy in the series opener.
However, the outcome was contraindicated in the underlying metrics. Dallas was the superior team throughout the contest, but couldn't hang on to secure the victory.
I'm expecting a similar effort from the Stars, albeit with a different outcome on Wednesday.
Vegas Golden Knights
Although they were able to fend of the Stars in the waning moments, Vegas was decisively outplayed throughout Game 1.
That extended a disastrous end to the season, in which the Golden Knights continued to win games despite getting outplayed on a nightly basis. In doing so, the wild card squad has exhausted its puck luck, putting it on the fast track with regression over its coming games.
Dating back to April 5, Vegas has been outplayed in five of eight contests, resulting in a 50.8% expected goals-for rating. Although that trend is concerning in and of itself, there are more pressing issues the Golden Knights need to address.
Vegas has been outscored at 5-on-5 in all but two of those outings, illustrating its increased reliance on special teams scoring to claim victory. As we see every year, the penalty standard changes in the playoffs, and as power play opportunities dry up, so does the Knights' chances of adding special teams scoring.
That was the case again in Game 1, with Vegas getting outscored 3-2 at 5-on-5 against the Stars, but tallying two power play markers to clinch the win.
The series opener was analogous to the Knights' recent stretch, but it's time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction.
Dallas Stars
Objectively, no Western Conference team has shone brighter than the Stars over the past few weeks. Since April 6, the Stars are leading the conference in expected goals-for rating, churning out a spectacular 63.0% benchmark.
They maintained that standard on home ice on Monday, and their recent history supports a similar effort in Game 2.
In the series opener, Dallas outplayed the Knights in every regard. The hosts were effectively playing a game of keep-away, with top-end possession metrics, including a 54.7% Corsi rating.
Likewise, they out-shot and out-chanced the Knights, tilting the ice further in their favor. The Stars out-shot Vegas by a 23-13 margin, while attempting 22 scoring and 10 high-danger chances to the Knights' 17 and six, respectively.
Even though the Stars translated those opportunities to output, they were tough-luck losers at American Airlines Center.
Crazily, the resulting 57.8% expected goals-for rating was below what we've come to expect from the Stars. Dallas had exceeded that game score in six of its last 10 regular season games, illustrating its sheer dominance on a nightly basis.
The result may not have gone their way on Monday, but the Stars remain the pre-eminent analytics force in the NHL.
A similar effort should result in a very different outcome on Wednesday.
Golden Knights vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Golden Knights are regression candidates. They continually get outplayed, relying too heavily on unsustainable metrics to win games.
The opposite is true for the Stars. Considering its unrelenting performances, Dallas is due for more wins than we see on the stats sheet.
In conjunction with a diminished betting price, we're using this as an opportunity to back the Stars in Game 2.
You could get very different prices depending on where you shop, but anything less than -185 is a playable edge.
Pick: Stars ML -155 (bet365)
