Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds, Preview
| Golden Knights Odds | +135 |
| Stars Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -125 / +105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars on Wednesday, May 1 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Stars will return home from a successful trip to Vegas, which featured back-to-back wins to level the series at two apiece.
Road teams are now 4-0 in the series, which is an interesting note considering the line movement between Game 4 and tonight's Game 5. The Stars were priced at -105 and -110 in those two matchups, and they are now heavy favorites on home ice at -160.
Vegas Golden Knights
Both teams brought high-quality efforts in Monday's Game 4, and the Knights bounced back with a much better defensive showing after getting heavily outplayed in Game 3. The Stars lead on high-danger chances 12-9 at even strength, and they're 15-10 across all strengths.
The Knights own just 38.82% of the expected goals in the series, which is the lowest mark of any team in Round 1 of the postseason. Logan Thompson has stopped 5.2 goals above expected, and he owns a .921 save % in the series. Expect him to start again in this matchup.
The Knights proved in last year's playoffs that they can be an opportunistic side, and their offensive play could be underrated, analytically speaking. They feature potent offense off the rush, and they do well to create havoc out front while their talented defense core pours in threatening point shots.
At this point, you probably have to give credit to the idea that the Knights' process in playoff games is underrated by expected goals data.
It will be interesting to see if coach Bruce Cassidy adjusts his forward lines once again after a losing effort. He opted to healthy scratch a struggling Anthony Mantha for Game 4, which allowed Michael Amadio to slide back in the lineup.
Update (Tuesday, 1:45 p.m. ET):
The Knights have confirmed they will pivot to Adin Hill as tonight's starting goaltender. Hill was brilliant during last year's cup run with a +7.7 GSAx and .932 save %, but Logan Thompson outperformed him down the stretch during the regular season.
Given the way Thompson has dominated in the series, this is a surprising move. However, Hill is more than capable of matching the level we have seen from Thompson.
This situation adds slightly more volatility to the matchup since Hill hasn't played since April 18. However, chances are Hill will step in and perform at a comparably high level.
Dallas Stars
Considering the quality of their opponent, the Stars have played about as well as you could ask for in this series. They were truly outplayed only in two periods of Game 2, and they bounced back with two well-rounded efforts in Vegas to knot the series.
Everybody knew the Stars were getting a nightmare draw as the top seed running into a Cup champion Knights team, and it has played out exactly that way.
The fact that the Stars have played very well overall and yet are still in a 2-2 series is important when considering the betting prices in this game. Are the Stars going to outplay the Knights more than they have to this point? Seems unlikely, which makes me believe a -160 to back Dallas here holds no value.
Ultimately, well-contested playoff games come down to a bounce here or there, and that is simply the reality of it.
Dallas will likely own more of the play again, but the Knights likely won't offer much in the way of the true defensive breakdowns that are needed to beat the opposing goaltending right now.
Jake Oettinger's play also continues to be somewhat concerning. He has not been awful by any means, with a -0.1 GSAx and .907 save % in the series. However, the Stars must win despite what could be a goaltending disparity – even with Dallas' swap in goal to Hill.
Mason Marchment is considered a game-time decision for this matchup. The Stars should otherwise be icing the same roster as we saw in Game 4.
Golden Knights vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
When you analyze the entirety of this series, the Stars have been the better team in terms of chance creation, and they are slightly unlucky to only be at 2-2. With that said, considering Jake Oettinger's play in the opposing goal, the Knights will feel good about their chances of stealing any closely contested games.
As the series shifts back to Dallas, we are again seeing too drastic an overreaction from the betting market. Home-ice advantage continues to be baked heavily into the numbers as series change locations despite the fact that there is no evidence that shows home ice matters in the NHL playoffs.
Road teams went 42-36 last season, and they're now up to 21-16 this season. There were four more examples of series in which the betting prices changed significantly based largely on location last night, and three of the road teams won once again.
This point is again very important in analyzing what the fair price of this matchup should be, especially in a series in which road teams are 4-0. The Stars deserve to be a favorite, but -160 is an overreaction. We should expect a competitive game that looks similar to Game 4.
There is value backing the Knights to take this one at +135.
Pick: Golden Knights (+135 at Bet365, 0.5 unit) | Play to +130
