Islanders vs. Canadiens Odds
| Islanders Odds | -152 |
| Canadiens Odds | +126 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104o / -128u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs. Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, Jan. 25 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Montreal is set to welcome Patrick Roy back to Bell Centre, and this game will feature an especially electric atmosphere from arguably the league's most passionate fanbase as a result.
The Islanders have started 1-1-0 under Roy, but they did display a lot of positives in Tuesday's loss to the Golden Knights.
Moral victories won't appease Isles faithful for long, though, and they will need somewhere close to 44 points from their final 35 games to sneak into the postseason.
Coach Martin St. Louis will hope a playoff atmosphere can offer a boost to his side, which enters amid an awful run of play. The Canadiens are only 3-5-2 in their last 10 games and have been outscored 40-25 in those matchups.
New York Islanders
With the kind of goaltending Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin offer most nights, the Islanders have not suffered many tough-luck losses over the last two seasons.
Unfortunately, that was the case Tuesday as they poured 42 shots Adin Hill's way in a 3-2 loss. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Islanders owned 17 high-danger chances to the Knights' six.
If not for this sharp-angle goal from Sheldon Rempal, we are probably talking about a different story. Credit to Rempal for the perfect shot, but from that location, when goalies are set and square, this is simply a must-have for Sorokin.
Everything else from Tuesday night's game was highly encouraging.
Roy has talked about the need for the Isles to drive possession with more cohesive play in both the offensive and defensive zones. Under Lambert, it was clear that the Isles had a difficult time understanding trigger points in the defensive zone, and how to break up longer spells in the defensive zone.
The upside is there for the Islanders to turn around their season; you can point to several areas of coaching malpractice that were consistently displayed under Lambert.
Roy has offered his top talents more ice time than we typically saw under Lambert. Bo Horvat and Matt Barzal were offered 23:08 and 25:08 minutes of ice time, respectively, on Tuesday. Anders Lee and Brock Nelson also both skated well past their season averages. All four have gone past their season average for time on ice in both games under Roy.
Varlamov is likely to make his return to the crease Thursday and offer Sorokin an opportunity for some well-deserved rest.
Varlamov has again been one of the league's best backups this season with a +5.3 GSAx and .918 save % across 14 appearances. He has been out of the lineup since Jan. 2 versus Colorado, which does add a layer of volatility to this matchup.
Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki commented following Tuesday's 4-1 drubbing by the Senators that the Canadiens played reasonably well, if not for two defensive-zone breakdowns that aren't supposed to happen.
While that take is perhaps not necessarily wrong, defensive-zone breakdowns are definitely more inclined to happen when you own next to none of the overall play.
That has been the story far too often of late for the Canadiens.
When true to form, they will look to play somewhat of a rope-a-dope style. They hope to manage owning less of the play by avoiding the types of high-danger breakdowns that actually create goals while finishing plays off going the other way.
In the last 10 matchups, the Canadiens own a league-worst expected goal rating of 39.07%. They have allowed 37.07 shots against per 60. For reference, the league average rate this season is 30.3.
Samuel Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens starter. In 22 appearances this season, he owns a +1.2 GSAx and .903 save %.
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Islanders vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Islanders should continue to trend upward in form under Patrick Roy, and their loss to the Golden Knights deserves to be viewed as a positive comment toward that thought.
They have enough talent to own more of the play than they did throughout the Lane Lambert era, and if Roy can get them playing a more cohesive team game, it should continue to lead to far more offensive zone time and scoring chances.
The Canadiens, meanwhile, have been spending more time defending than any other team in the league recently. We should expect them to bring a high level of urgency to this highly anticipated matchup, but that doesn't change my belief that the Islanders will own much of the play.
At opening numbers around -135, I believed the Islanders were a play, but at the current prices, they become a pass.
Montembeault is priced at -118 to record over 27.5 saves, and that is still a bettable number. If we had a larger sample of the Islanders play under Roy, this price would probably be set at 29.5.
That's where it has often been versus opponents who generate shots at a league-average rate recently, which is not surprising as in a giant 25-game sample, they have allowed 33.37 shots against per 60.
Pick: Samuel Montembeault Over 27.5 Saves (-118 at FanDuel) | Play to -125
