Islanders vs. Jets Odds
| Islanders Odds | +154 |
| Jets Odds | -185 |
| Over / Under | 6 -102 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about Islanders vs. Jets on Tuesday, Jan. 16 — our expert prediction and betting preview for today.
The Islanders are looking to bounce back after a dreadful 5-0 loss in Minnesota, which was their fourth defeat in the past five games. In those matchups, they've allowed an average of 4.20 goals against per game.
Winnipeg finally suffered a regulation loss Saturday versus the Flyers, but is still first in the league in terms of points percentage. The Jets have been the NHL's stingiest team and are allowing only 2.29 goals against per game.
That leads me to my Islanders vs. Jets prediction.
New York Islanders
Whether the rumors are accurate or not, it's being speculated that tonight could be Lane Lambert's last game behind the Islanders bench. A 19-14-10 record might make that seem a little unfair, but those who have closely followed the Islanders this season know their process hasn't been impressive.
The Islanders' 2.85 xGA/60 mark in 43 games is the seventh-highest mark in the league this year. Over the past month, their defensive play has taken another significant step backward, as they've allowed 3.48 xGA/60 and 3.64 goals against. They have also allowed 33.20 shots against per game over the past five games.
Ilya Sorokin has been as excellent as advertised, despite the fact that he owns a .908 save percetage entering this matchup. He owns a 2.3 GSAx per Moneypuck, but other private models, which weight pre-shot movement, rate him higher than that.
Sorokin played last night against Minnesota, so it's possible the Islanders will turn to Kenneth Appleby here. Appleby has played to an .897 save percentage in 11 AHL appearances this season.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets are in the midst of a 30-game streak in which they haven't allowed more than three goals. In that period, they've allowed only 1.87 goals against per game and have received an unsustainable .936 save percentage from their goalies. That mark is especially wild as their 2.99 xGA/60 rating in that period ranks eighth in the league.
The Jets are clearly a strong defensive team, but nobody picked them to be the best defensive team in history ahead of the season. The underlying results suggest they still aren't, and even a goaltender as dominant as Connor Hellebuyck will come down to earth eventually.
Kyle Connor is set to return to the lineup tonight, which will add some significant offensive upside to a roster that had already been filling the cage effectively. However, Mark Scheifele is listed as day-to-day and didn't take part in the morning skate.
Hellebuyck has been confirmed as the Jets starter for this matchup and is rightfully the Vezina favorite, with a 19.8 GSAx and .924 save percentage across 31 appearances.
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Islanders vs. Jets
Betting Pick & Prediction
At opening, the Jets moneyline was a clear play, but the current prices look accurate, and I see no value with either side. Over 5.5 is available at -130 on FanDuel and I see value with that price even if Sorokin starts for New York. If Appleby happens to play, we'll likely quickly see the over move up a touch.
However, in an important spot like this, it seems unlikely that Lambert would turn to Appleby over Sorokin.
The Islanders have been reasonably productive offensively, although requiring them to put a few past Hellebuyck is daunting. Islanders totals have been set too low all season and I believe tonight's over/under should be set at six. As a result, there's clear value in betting Over 5.5.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
