Islanders vs Rangers Odds
| Islanders Odds | +146 |
| Rangers Odds | -176 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120o / -102u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Islanders vs New York Rangers on Saturday, April 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Battle of New York rages on Saturday afternoon at Madison Square Garden.
This is not a true home-and-home series, but the Islanders bested the Rangers earlier in the week, needing an empty-netter to secure a 4-2 victory at UBS Arena. In doing so, the Islanders maintained the third spot in the Metropolitan. Almost as sweetly, they could have potentially derailed the Rangers' division title aspirations.
The Rangers are clinging to a one-point lead atop the division, needing to fend off the surging Carolina Hurricanes to maintain the top spot and home-ice advantage through at least the first two rounds of the postseason.
The Broadway Blueshirts will face a stiff test from a scrappy Islanders squad, but they have a few metrics working in their favor in this one. Let's take a look at the matchup in my Islanders vs Rangers preview and get into my three Islanders vs Rangers predictions.
New York Islanders
Coming into Saturday's intra-divisional affair, the Islanders are riding a six-game winning streak. Included in that streak is a convincing, albeit harder than it needed to be, victory over the Montreal Canadiens last time out. In that game, the Isles were propped up by a 75.5% expected goals-for rating. However, they looked less effective in the five preceding wins.
Across the five-game sample, the Islanders were outplayed on three occasions. Cumulatively, they put together a 49.3% expected goals-for rating, but that benchmark looks a lot worse when adjusted for opponent. The Long Islanders got to beat up the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks and struggling Philadelphia Flyers. Further, they played three of five at home, giving them yet another advantage that isn't reflected in their expected goals-for rating.
Ineffective defensive zone coverage is sinking the Islanders. Over the same stretch, the Islanders allowed 11 or more high-danger chances in three of five, predictably getting out-chanced in all three of those outings.
Islanders goaltenders deserve a lot of credit for keeping the team in games, but their offense has also amplified scoring. Altogether, they're averaging 11 high-danger chances per game over the five-game stretch, scoring on 10.3% of shots. That puts them ahead of their regular-season average of 9.8% and on pace for a solid end to the season.
New York Rangers
The Rangers haven't been so lucky with their recent efforts. The Original Six squad has saved some of its best efforts for late in the season. Still, they have yet to be rewarded for their efforts.
Specifically, the Rangers head into the rivalry tilt on a two-game losing streak and a 3-3-0 record over their past six. However, there's an imbalance with their underlying metrics, supporting the Rangers are progression candidates over their coming games.
New York has outplayed its opponents in all but one of its last six outings, posting a cumulative 58.1% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. Most of their analytics success is being driven by improved offensive production, which will eventually translate to increased scoring.
Altogether, the Rangers have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances in four of six, averaging 9.8 quality opportunities. Likewise, scoring chances have improved, with the Rangers averaging 24.2, above their season-long benchmark of 22.3.
The Rangers are on the verge of a breakout, and we're expecting that to come in Saturday's showdown versus the Islanders.
Islanders vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are a few plays worth considering ahead of this one.
Both teams head into the contest with impressive offensive metrics. Furthermore, Islanders goalies are on the precipice of collapse, operating well outside normal ranges in terms of save percentages. As such, the Over 5.5 at -115 or better warrants investment.
Additionally, the Rangers have been the superior team and are due for increased output and wins. We're taking this opportunity to back them at -200 or better.
But it might not all come crashing down at once for the Islanders. Desperately needing points for their playoff push, we wouldn't be surprised if this one was sorted out in overtime or a shootout. Anything better than +350 will do for that one
Pick: Over 5.5 (-115 via Bet365) | Rangers ML (-160 via PointsBet) | 60-minute tie (+360 via FanDuel)
