Kings vs. Avalanche Odds
| Kings Odds | +122 |
| Avalanche Odds | -146 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs Avalanche on Friday, January 26th — including NHL picks and predictions.
In a span of only six weeks, the Kings have gone from looking like a true Cup contender to potentially missing the playoffs altogether. They have three more games prior to the All-Star break, and if the results remain the same a potential coaching change could be on the horizon.
A matchup versus Nathan MacKinnon and the red-hot Avalanche is far from a get-right spot. The Avs have won seven of their last 10 and are hot on the heels of the Jets for first in the division.
Here's my Kings vs Avalanche preview and prediction.
Los Angeles Kings
A brutal stretch of results for the Kings hit a new low this week. They blew a 3-1 first-period lead Wednesday versus the Sabres, which followed a 4-3 overtime defeat at the hands of the Sharks. Suddenly, coach Todd McLellan has to be concerned about his job security, as the Kings are now flirting with a potentially shocking playoff absence.
Drew Doughty ripped into his team following Wednesday's loss, and given the potential of this roster, its pretty clear that he has a point.
The Kings have played to a 2-7-5 record in the last 14 games. At the start of this skid, it was easy to point to overtime losses versus tough opponents as an excuse, but now the case is becoming more clear that their form has dropped off considerably. They have played to a 48.98% expected goal rating in those 14 games. So while a shooting percentage of 6.8% has been a clear flaw, their once-vaunted defensive play has clearly hit a snag.
The Kings have allowed 3.29 xGA/60 over the last 14 from a total of 29.86 shots against per 60. That mark is another comment towards the validity of Doughty's frustrations, as this recent stretch of play has been the worst sample of defensive hockey from Los Angeles in either of the last two seasons.
In the first 30 games of this year, the Kings played to a league-best xGA/60 of 2.73, allowing only 25.04 shots against per 60. Last season, their 2.90 xGA/60 was the fourth-best mark in the league.
Losing strong play-drivers Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari in what has now become a disastrous trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois does hurt their roster[s defensive upside to an extent. Even still, the talent left behind has the potential to be a significantly better than average side.
Viktor Arvidsson remains the Kings' only significant absence, but he is moving closer to a return and should be back sometime after the All-Star break.
The biggest concern for the Kings roster looking at the bigger picture could be the disastrous recent form of Cam Talbot. GM Rob Blake gambled on Talbot this offseason, hoping he could rekindle his form under an elite defensive side. Early on, Talbot was tremendous, but has fallen into a month-long spell of suspect play, including a poor start in Wednesday's loss.
There really isn't much reason to feel confident in Talbot to find his form, and its hard to view David Rittich as a compelling starting option, either, based upon his prior results.
Keep your eyes out for confirmation out of morning skate toward the Kings' starter. Rittich has played to a +6.3 GSAx and .930 save % in eight appearances, and my lean would be that he gets the chance here after Talbot's blowup Wednesday.
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MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar have combined for a ridiculous 97 points in their last 80 man-games combined. Devon Toews continues to be one of the games most influential defenders in the league, and one half of what probably still deserves to be credited as the best defensive pairing in the league.
Those four superstars keep the floor of the Avalanche extremely high, as we have seen with Valeri Nichushkin now sidelined and a relatively modest surrounding core elsewhere.
In the last 10 games, the Avalanche have played to a 50.81% expected goals rating, which is likely not the kind of dominant mark most would expect. Yes, the Avs' top stars are always going to create the kind of chances which can be undervalued in public expected goals data.
Still, though, there are some clear flaws down Colorado's lineup, and the big dogs are being asked to cover a lot. GM Joe Sakic owes it to his superstars to bring in some deadline acquisitions, because even with some clear holes on the roster this team is already a Cup contender.
Ross Colton and Logan O'Connor have both been excellent in their respective roles, but overall their offensive core is not as deep as most other contenders. The Avs' defensive core isn't as deep as it used to be, either. Away from the Toews-Makar pairing they have been far from dominant, and we can safely expect at least one reinforcement will be acquired at the deadline.
Alexandar Georgiev isn't an overly compelling No. 1 starter either, but at the same time, he is quietly a better option than a ton of playoff teams can offer in a year with so many notable goaltenders struggling. Georgiev has played to a +1.5 GSAx and .896 save % across 40 appearances, and is confirmed as tonight's starter.
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Kings vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Kings' roster suggests that in time they should be able to stabilize to an extent, specifically on the defensive side of things. They have been of the best defensive teams in the league over the last several seasons and are capable of more than we have seen recently. It would make sense to see them play a sharper defensive game tonight and moving forward.
Colorado is going to be a popular play here, but the value isn't quite there at -150. If the Kings get decent goaltending, the avenues are there for them to win this matchup, and I think it is obvious they are better than they shown recently, which typically means it is a bad time to fade a team.
While the Kings' offensive form has hit a wall, nobody seems to be fully crediting how shaky the goaltending situation has become. That is likely to be the bigger concern big picture, and it does tie in to what will be my favorite look on this matchup.
Whether it's Rittich or Talbot in goal for the Kings, I do not expect them to face as high a workload as the average goaltender has recently versus the Avalanche. If either of them do face a lot of shots early, chances are that will lead to a few Avs' goals and get the game script working in our favor.
Unfortunately since the Kings have not confirmed their starter, the odds aren't up yet. My expectation is that Rittich/Talbot's save prop opens a touch too high at 27.5, or possibly even 28.5 if are we lucky. I would play the under 27.5 down to -125.
Pick: David Rittich or Cam Talbot Under 27.5 Saves (Depending on who starts in goal for L.A.)
