Kings vs. Flames Odds
| Kings Odds | -165 |
| Flames Odds | +140 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Kings vs. Calgary Flames on Saturday, March 30 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
With plenty left to play for in the final weeks of the campaign, LA should have a motivation edge over the 33-34-5 Flames, but LA lost its last road game against Calgary, so the Flames shouldn't be taken lightly.
We'll discuss that loss in greater detail as part of our preview of the upcoming contest and then offer a Kings vs. Flames prediction.
Los Angeles Kings
LA has a 38-23-11 record, but for most of the campaign, the Kings have been a dominant force. If you exclude their disastrous 3-8-6 stretch from Dec. 28-Jan.28, LA has gone 35-15-5. In terms of points percentage, that would put the Kings behind just the Rangers in the league. Instead, LA occupies the second wild-card seed, so to say that one bad run has substantially hindered the Kings' campaign would be accurate.
Injuries weren't a major factor during that terrible stretch — the Kings have been relatively lucky on the health front this campaign with the notable exception of Viktor Arvidsson, who has played in just eight contests. Instead, it was just a case of nearly everyone getting cold at the same time.
The team's leaders in PPG this season are Adrian Kempe (0.94), Anze Kopitar (0.89), Kevin Fiala (0.88), Quinton Byfield (0.76), Trevor Moore (0.68) and defenseman Drew Doughty (0.61). That doesn't add up to an amazing offense, but it's good enough to put the Kings in 16th overall with 3.08 goals per game.
Those offensive numbers have been dragged down by the Dec. 28-Jan. 28 stretch, though. LA averaged just 2.25 goals per contest in that span. If you compare their season average PPGs with their offensive paces during the slump, you'll find them down across the board with Kopitar and Trevor Moore being two of the bigger offenders, producing just 0.63 and 0.56 PPG, respectively, during that stretch. Even Adrian Kempe, who led the team offensively with 0.81 PPG across the slump, still saw a drop in production.
That would have been bad enough, but Cam Talbot was also horrible during the slump, posting a record of 0-7-3 with a 3.86 GAA and an .881 save percentage. Before that stretch, he was 14-6-2 with a 2.06 GAA and a .925 save percentage across 22 appearances, and he's gone 9-4-1 with a 2.11 GAA and .926 save percentage his past 15 outings since the slump, so Talbot would likely be a contender for the Vezina Trophy if not for that one stretch.
Calgary Flames
Still, it was Feb. 27 when the Flames hosted LA and earned a 4-2 victory — well after the Kings had recovered, so LA can't blame that loss on that one terrible slump. The Flames also outshot LA 36-23 with Moneypuck's "Deserve To Win O'Meter" suggesting Calgary should have claimed that victory 64.1% of the time, so it's fair to say Calgary soundly outplayed the Kings on that night. However, the contest is still something of an anomaly.
The Flames are 18-17-1 at home, so we can't reasonably say that Calgary excels on its own ice, and the Kings have traveled well this campaign with a 21-12-4 record. It's also rare for the Flames to limit the competition to so few shots — teams have averaged 30.0 shots per game against them. Fatigue on LA's side might partially explain that.
The Kings were in the second half of a road back-to-back, having competed in Edmonton the previous day, and were playing for the third time in four nights. Meanwhile, Calgary was well rested and had some momentum, having won its prior three contests going into that tilt.
By contrast, Calgary has lost five straight games and eight of its last 10, so the Flames are in a miserable spot while the Kings are going into this game rested and having won four of their last five. With all that considered, it's best not to be overly concerned about LA losing its last game against Calgary.
That's not to say the Flames have no hope. Although Jacob Markstrom hasn't been great recently, allowing 21 goals on 165 shots (.873 save %) over his past six contests, he's having a solid campaign overall with a 22-19-2 record, 2.70 GAA and .909 save % in 43 appearances, so perhaps he'll give LA some trouble. Calgary also has an okay offense, tied for 17th with 3.06 goals per game, and the Flames three scorers with over 20 goals in Yegor Sharangovich (28), Blake Coleman (28) and Nazem Kadri (23).
None of that makes the Flames scary, but there are certainly worse out there.
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Kings vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
To the surprise of no one, LA is a substantial favorite tonight. If anything, LA's Dec. 28-Jan. 28 slump has left the team a little underrated.
With the factors that led to the Flames' previous win not present tonight, I expect LA to beat the 1.5 goals spread against them.
Pick: Los Angeles puck line +160 via DraftKings (play down to +140)
