Kings vs. Oilers Odds
| Kings Odds | +135 |
| Oilers Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 6 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, March 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The stakes are at an all-time high on Thursday night as the Edmonton Oilers host the Los Angeles Kings.
Edmonton is clinging to its divisional title aspirations. The Oilers are eight points back of the Vancouver Canucks, with two games in hand, and need to make up ground over the final few weeks of the season.
However, Connor McDavid and company can't lose sight of the team behind them either. The Kings have mounted a serious charge up the standings lately, winning four in a row and posting a 10-3-1 record since the end of February. That leaves them just three points shy of the Oilers.
So, where is the betting edge in this matchup? Well, let's make a Kings vs. Oilers pick.
Los Angeles Kings
Few teams can hang with the Oilers analytically, but the Kings are one of those teams. Los Angeles is third in expected goals-for rating, coming in just a few points behind their division rivals. However, LA's metrics have taken a hit lately, which has created a disconnect between actual and expected metrics. Inevitably, a correction phase awaits the Kings over their coming games.
The Kings are coming in hot off their recent victory over the Pacific Division-leading Vancouver Canucks. LA vanquished the frontrunners 3-2 on Monday, extending its win streak to four games. However, the Kings were substantially outplayed in that contest. Moreover, they've been railroaded by the past three teams they've faced, including the Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild.
Their best effort across the modest three-game sample was a 44.3% expected goals-for rating against the Lightning, but cumulatively they are hovering at 36.5%. That's in stark contrast to their actual goals-for rating of 88.9%.
Inherent in those outcomes is an unsustainable offensive attack that's due for collapse. Extending the window further back reveals a Kings team that has been held to eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past five game. Altogether, LA has been held to 7.0 quality opportunities per game, yet has seen a drastic surge in scoring. Using the same five-game sample, the Kings shooting percentage is up to 14.1%, nearly double their season-long benchmark of 7.8%.
Los Angeles is on the verge of a letdown, and I'm betting that occurs tonight.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers were recently in a similar position to their counterparts. From March 5 to March 19, Edmonton was outplayed in five of seven contests, but still managed to win four of those outings. Those unsustainable efforts finally imploded as Edmonton suffered humbling defeats to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators. But the Oilers have started their ascent out of that rut, putting forth some elite performances more recently.
Edmonton is back to its usual dominance as the Oilers have outplayed three of their past four opponents and accumulated a 62.8% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. Predictably, their offense is driving that upward trajectory, averaging 12.8 high-danger and 32.3 scoring chances per game over that sample.
The Oilers have also tightened their defensive zone coverage, limiting all but one of their past five opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances. Similarly, scoring chances have been in even shorter supply, with no team eclipsing 21 across the same stretch.
After a dry spell, the Oilers have their analytics working for them again. That should help them close the gap on the Canucks before the end of the season and get past the Kings at home.
Kings vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams, with their recent efforts, are positioned on opposite ends of the analytics spectrum. However, the Kings are getting more credit for their superior outcomes.
I'm backing Oilers at home and would back them down to -175.
Pick: Oilers -150 (bet365)
