Kraken vs. Avalanche Odds
| Kraken Odds | +230 |
| Avalanche Odds | -295 |
| Over/Under | 6.5o-120 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | ALT2 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Colorado Avalanche's championship parade continues as the defending Stanley Cup winners host the Seattle Kraken in Friday night NHL action.
The Avs' offense hasn't missed a beat early this season, compiling 17 goals through their first four games of the season. However, the Avs are relying too heavily on power-play scoring and could face a stiffer-than-expected challenge from the Kraken.
Kraken Due For Positive Regression
Limited skill and ineffective goaltending have been the Kraken's downfall since joining the league. Early-season metrics indicate that they struggle to capitalize on opportunities, although the team remains analytically sound. Seattle has an above-average 53.8% Corsi and 54.5% expected goals-for ratings at five-on-five, ranking seventh and ninth in the NHL, respectively.
There are indicators that the Kraken are due for some puck luck. First, their actual goals-for rating is well below expected values. At five-on-five, Seattle has been out-scored 11-7, equaling an actual 38.9% goals-for rating.
Moreover, their PDO has been one of the worst in the league for the second straight year. Currently, the Kraken have the third-worst shooting percentage at 5.3% and a 90.4% save percentage, the 11th-worst, culminating in a 0.957 PDO.
Inevitably, teams fall on both ends of the PDO spectrum, but given the Kraken's analytics success, we're anticipating progression from the league's newest franchise. That may not result in more wins immediately, but it will help Seattle be more competitive over their coming games.
Can Avalanche Keep Up This Pace?
The Avalanche get a lot of attention for their offensive abilities, and rightfully so, but they've been flying under the radar as an elite defensive team for the past couple of seasons. Those underlying metrics will come in handy to offset the anticipated regression we're expecting from their offense.
The Avs have struck an unsustainable balance between production and output to start the 2022-23 campaign. The defending champs are averaging a below-average 8.0 high-danger chances per game, scoring on just 6.4% of their shots at five-on-five. Nevertheless, they are averaging 4.3 goals per game, thanks to an abundance of special team scoring.
Whether they run out of power play opportunities or their 53.9% conversion rate falls back toward the normal range, Nathan MacKinnon and company are heavy regression candidates.
Goals will be harder to come by for the Avalanche as their production and output metrics balance over the coming games. Thankfully, they can lean into their defensive shell to limit opponents' chances and stay competitive.
Kraken vs. Avalanche Pick
We're recommending two plus-money wagers for tonight's Western Conference clash.
The Kraken are rolling out a tidy defensive-minded game plan, driving possession and out-chancing their opponents. This is a similar brand that the Avs play, which could result in a closer than anticipated matchup, with goals coming at a premium.
As such, there's value in playing the under 6.5 at +100 or better and Kraken on the puck line.
Pick: Under 6.5 +100, Kraken +1.5 +100
