Lightning vs. Panthers Odds
| Lightning Odds | +154 |
| Panthers Odds | -185 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -122 / +102 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Lightning vs. Panthers Game 2 on Tuesday, April 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Battle for Sunshine State supremacy rages on with Game 2 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers. The Panthers clinched a hard-fought victory in the series opener, but as was the case on Sunday, they'll face a stiff challenge from the Bolts again on Tuesday.
Despite their best efforts, the Lightning came up short in Game 1. But they maintained their elite offensive play, which is a solid indicator of improved success. Coupled with the anticipated regression from Sergei Bobrovsky, Tampa's chances look a lot better than the betting line implies.
Consequently, this is a good opportunity to take a shot with the substantive underdog Lightning.
Here's my Tampa Bay vs. Florida pick and prediction for tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Although they couldn't translate it to a victory, the Bolts controlled the tempo in Game 1 with the Panthers. Tampa Bay posted a 51.0% Corsi rating in the contest, not letting the team's role as visitors get in the way of their winning pedigree. As expected, that assertiveness was also reflected in their production metrics with the Lightning maintaining their elite play from the end of the regular season.
On Monday, Tampa Bay delivered 10 high-danger chances at 5-on-5. That was the third straight contest in which they recorded double-digits and the 10th time in 15 games in which they cracked that threshold. Still, the improved production didn't translate to increased scoring, but we are anticipating growth in that regard in Game 2.
Prior to the loss, Tampa Bay was scoring at a higher rate. The wild-card squad had tallied at least four goals in five of its previous eight games, scoring on 12.2% of shots at 5-on-5 and 12.7% across all strengths.
In reconciling the team's sustained production with the dip in output, we're betting Sunday's two-goal performance is the anomaly in the sample. Consequently, we're expecting a boost in scoring on Tuesday.
Lastly, we also have to acknowledge the standout play and winning pedigree Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to flaunt. The Lightning netminder has posted an above-average save percentage in six of his last nine with his most recent effort adding to his playoff dominance. That boosts his career save percentage up to 92.1% in the playoffs.
Improved offensive production awaits the Lightning, and they can feel confident that their own end will be secure.
Florida Panthers
You wouldn't assume this by looking at the Panthers' spot in the standings or their analytics, but consistency has been an issue for the Atlantic Division winners this season.
Moreover, that's analogous to the play of Bobrovsky, who has been wildly inconsistent since landing with the Panthers. That makes the Panthers hard to support as steep home chalk in Game 2.
Analytically, the series opener was a toss-up. The Panthers had negative relative possession metrics, but they out-chanced the visitors in high-danger chances, precipitating a 50.2% expected goals-for rating. But considering their track record in 2024, it's unlikely they replicate that modest advantage in consecutive outings.
Since Jan. 24, Florida has posted above-average expected goals-for ratings in consecutive games on just six occasions. Worse, only once over that stretch has the team outplayed its opponents in three consecutive games. Predictably, the Panthers' actual goals-for rating is almost 8.0% higher than expected, making them regression candidates at the worst time of year.
Similarly, Bobrovsky finds himself in the same unfavorable position. The Russian goalie has an inflated 94.7% save percentage over his last five starts. That puts him substantially ahead of his regular season average of 91.5% and even further above his playoff average of 90.8%.
Bobrovsky and his teammates are poised for a letdown, and it couldn't come at a worse time of year.
Lightning vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Bettors are wrong for putting their faith in Bobrovsky and the Panthers. The Lightning have superior metrics, and their string of good outcomes is grounded in sustainable play.
The opposite is true for the Panthers. Florida has outlasted its metrics and could be on the verge of collapse over the coming games.
With that, we're taking a bite out of the Panthers and backing the Lightning as hefty road 'dogs. The best available price right now is +158, but we would take them at +140 or better.
