Lightning vs Sabres Odds
| Lightning Odds | +108 |
| Sabres Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -152/ +124 |
Back-to-back losses for the Tampa Bay Lightning have Bolts fans already concerned ahead of their team's Tuesday night matchup against the Buffalo Sabres.
The Lightning (1-2) won their first bout on Opening Night against Nashville but faltered over the weekend against Detroit and Ottawa.
Buffalo had a similar fate after going through the New York gauntlet, falling victim to both the Rangers and Islanders. Lots of high hopes are coming out of Western New York after nearly clinching a playoff berth for the first time in 12 seasons.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction for Lightning vs Sabres Tuesday night.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The usual suspects from Tampa have shown up with flying colors. The Bolts currently have six players with at least a point per game, including Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
What has really held them back has been goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy, a five-time NHL All-Star and the 2019 Vezina Trophy winner, will miss the first two months of the season after having back surgery.
This team will go only as far as replacements Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins will take it.
Despite the high numbers toward the top of the lineup, the Lightning haven't had a great start on offense and defense. It’s still early, but the Bolts are an abnormal 30th in expected goals with a 33.67 xGF, and 31st with a 3.88 xGA/60.
Luckily for them, their special teams have performed well. The Lightning are fifth with a 33% power play and are succeeding on the penalty kill at an 86% rate.
With Vasilevskiy sidelined, the Bolts will need their pipeline to step up. Johansson has bounced around the league, having played for four teams in 10 seasons. He will most likely be relied upon, and so far has posted an .889 SV% and a 0.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
The 29-year-old Tomkins never played in the NHL before this season.
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Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo’s young talent is certainly special.
The team just locked up two of its young defensive core in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power before the season started. Tage Thompson is coming off a nearly 50-goal season, and rookie Zach Benson looks as electric as ever.
To go with that, Dylan Cozens, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch are all coming off 30-plus goal seasons.
So, yeah, there’s a lot to like.
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With all that talent, the execution has not been there yet. The Sabres are currently a bottom-five team at driving play with a 39.35 xGF% and creating high-danger chances.
Defensively, there's still work to be done, but the progress of a 2.73 xGA/60 is encouraging.
Last season, Buffalo had the ninth-best power play at 23%, but the Sabres have neglected to convert in two games. Conversely, the penalty kill has fared well so far whereas last year it was fifth-worst.
It’s clear that Devon Levi was the guy heading into this season with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie as the backups. Levi essentially won the job last year after an impressive seven-game stint out of college. So far, given Buffalo’s losing record, his numbers haven’t been great with an .881 SV% and a -1.8 GSAx.
Lightning vs. Sabres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams aren’t really playing well to start the season, and this will be a great way for one of them to get back on track.
I’m stunned by how poorly Tampa has played. We all know the star power the Lightning have, but perhaps Vasilevskiy was the straw that stirred the drink.
Looking at its roster, however, I am very underwhelmed after the big three of Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak. Relying on those guys to pick up the slack night in and night out could be detrimental.
That’s where Buffalo comes in. I fully expect KeyBank Center to be rocking in its home opener. There’s a ton of hype for this season, and I think the Sabres' young talent will come in guns blazing and skate circles around a lacking Lightning blue line.
I’m backing the Sabres to get their first win of the season.
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