Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | +110 |
| Bruins Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -125 / +105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game 1 on Saturday, April 20 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins odds have Boston as a -130 favorite on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 5.5 goals. The Bruins have dominated this matchup over the past couple of seasons, winning each of the past seven meetings.
Find out why I like that trend to continue in Game 1 as I make a Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction for Saturday.
Toronto Maple Leafs
We all know about Toronto's postseason woes. The Maple Leafs won a round last year for the first time in nearly two decades, but this team still isn't built for a deep postseason run, particularly due to difficulties on the blue line and in net.
This season, the Leafs surrendered high-danger scoring chances at a high clip, ranking 25th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Not only does this team struggle defensively at even strength, but it also ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in penalty minutes taken per game and penalty kill percentage.
Subsequently, it is not shocking that goaltender Ilya Samsonov has struggled behind that poor defense. Through 40 starts this season, Samsonov possesses a .890 SV% and a 3.13 GAA.
That lack of success is likely to continue against Boston, a team Samsonov has posted a mere .899 SV% against through seven career meetings.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins are likely to take advantage of Toronto's poor defense. Boston ranks in the top half of the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage. Based on the underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as the Bruins also rank in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
Meanwhile, the Bruins are even stronger defensively. Suppressing high-danger scoring chances at a high level, Boston ranks in the top half of the league in xGA/60.
Backing up this talented blue line is reigning Vezina Trophy winner, goaltender Linus Ullmark. Continuing his domination from last year, Ullmark posted a 22-10-7 record with a .915 SV% and a 2.58 GAA this season.
With this combination of top-level defense and goaltending, it's not shocking that the Bruins rank fifth in goals allowed per game. That success is likely to continue against Toronto, a team Ullmark is 3-0 against with a commanding .917 SV% and a 2.60 GAA over the past three meetings.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is a lot to like about the Bruins in this matchup. They are, by far, the superior team both defensively and in net.
Boston also possesses an edge on special teams and will be playing at home. The one area where Toronto possesses an advantage is on offense, but the gap between these offenses is smaller than the gaps on the other end of the ice.
I think there is more value in betting the Bruins on the puck line at +196 than laying -130 on the moneyline. These teams squared off twice in the beginning of March, and Boston won both of those two meetings by three goals.
Pick: Bruins -1.5 (+196 at Caesars | Play to +185)
