Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -200 |
| Ducks Odds | +165 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -145 / +120 |
Let's look at the latest odds and my Maple Leafs vs. Ducks prediction and betting pick for the game on Wednesday, Jan. 3.
The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to outperform expectations as underdogs – but underperform as heavy favorites – so far in this 2023-24 NHL season.
They will look to avoid a letdown performance tonight after a convincing 3-0 win over an excellent Los Angeles Kings side on Tuesday.
The Anaheim Ducks' freefall continued against Edmonton in a recent 7-2 loss. They have now lost 17 of their last 21 games after a strong start to the campaign.
With Anaheim playing at the low end of its potential, it helps set up my Toronto vs. Anaheim play tonight, which I will outline below.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs continue to be one of the most polarizing teams in the league this season in terms of public opinion.
When they win convincingly as we saw last night over an excellent Kings team, people plan the parade. If they lose to Columbus because backup goaltender Ilya Samsonov was horrific, people treat them like a lottery team.
The reality is somewhere in between. The Leafs rank 10th in points percentage, and on the nights Ilya Samsonov is not in goal, they deserve to be power-rated right there.
The big question surrounding tonight's game is whether it will be Martin Jones going back-to-back – or if Dennis Hildeby will make his first career start.
The answer should be simple since using No. 1 options back-to-back at this point in the season is an unnecessary risk. You aren't going to be able to cherrypick a better spot than a game versus Anaheim for your young starter to debut due to the soft opponent and a lower-pressure environment.
Hildeby has put up a .919 save % and 2.20 GAA with the AHL's strong Toronto Marlies team this season, and he has earned the right to one start. The plan can't be to play Jones every night until Samsonov returns or a trade is made, and therefore we should expect Hildeby to play tonight.
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The Leafs' drop-off in defensive form this season likely contributed to Samsonov losing his form. Toronto's 2.98 xGA/60 last season ranked 11th league-wide, and the Leafs' 2.68 GAA ranked seventh. They rank 19th with an xGA/60 OF 3.30 in 2023-24, and they have allowed the 10th-most goals-against per game at 3.30.
The idea that Toronto is underperforming its defensive potential seems to be where much of the frustration is coming from.
People view defensive stats as ones that dictate how hard a team is trying and how high the commitment to winning is. While the team's personnel both upfront and on the blue line is not as strong as it was last season in terms of two-way play, such a stark drop-off in defensive form was not expected.
With Sheldon Keefe still in charge and a now healthy blue line, we could continue to see a slight upswing in defensive form, closer to the rest of Keefe's tenure.
Additionally, Timothy Liljegren should continue to help shore up the third pair, and Simon Benoit has been coming into his own of late. M
itch Marner has not displayed the kind of two-way play we have typically seen, either.
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim was the worst defensive team in the NHL last season, allowing 4.09 goals against per game. It was certainly fair to say that former coach Dallas Eakins had done a poor job enforcing defensive zone structure to a young side.
New head coach Greg Cronin has the Ducks playing better defensive hockey to start the season, even if they are still well below average on that front.
Cronin has gone away from Eakins' system of purely man-on-man coverage in the defensive zone, which was a disaster and consistently allowed far too much time for top opposition talents.
The changes are modest; the Duck have allowed 3.39 goals against per game this year and are still allowing lots of quality chances against. They have gone from being a clearly disorganized side in all areas to one that simply lacks the personnel to hold much of the overall run of play.
Injuries haven't helped either; top defender Jamie Drysdale has missed most of the year.
In 13 games since the start of December, the Ducks have allowed only 3.15 goals against per game, but they have suffered from an inability to score.
John Gibson is having an excellent season and is expected to start for Anaheim in this matchup. He owns a +5.7 GSAx and .904 save % in 24 games played.
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The prior results from the sides in this matchup do not scream"bet the under!" at all, but this game features some unique intricacies that could make it the right play.
The previous results are being accounted for with this high total of 6.5 with heavy juice to the over. Price is everything, and I feel we have the number to bet Under 6.5 down to +110.
Anaheim has been downright horrific defensively over the last month, but we have may have seen their absolute worst on that front. Looking at a smaller sample, they had stabilized somewhat prior to their 7-2 loss against the best offense in the league on New Year's Eve.
Coach Cronin will likely emphasize the need to play a structured defensive game to win this one, and they are slightly more capable than we saw at their lowest.
For all that the Maple Leafs have been through with Samsonov and the media circus, the attention to detail will be there defensively if Hildeby gets the chance to play. The Leafs are certainly capable of keeping a thin Ducks offensive core in check if they play to their potential.
Additionally, we have seen far worse AHL goaltenders than Hildeby come up and succeed at the NHL level. If he can play to league-average results, it would not be surprising based on his excellent form this year in the AHL.
If Hildeby starts, I want to target a play on the under at +110 or better. It's not a play we will win more often than not, but the total of 6.5 should be priced closer to even money.
Pick: If Dennis Hildeby starts – Under 6.5 (+120 at PointsBet) | Play to +110
