Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -130 |
| Flyers Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, March 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Toronto is coming off a shootout heartbreaker at home against the Hurricanes. However, it seems to be in a solid position in the playoff race. The Leafs have gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and are 11 points ahead of the final seed in the playoffs.
After two consecutive losses, Philadelphia is starting to sweat. While its counterparts are sitting pretty, the Flyers are far from it. They sit at 76 points with five teams sniffing behind them.
Let's dive into our Maple Leafs vs. Flyers preview and prediction today.
Toronto Maple Leafs
It’s no secret that Toronto is extremely top heavy. The difference is, the top half of this team can carry the load for the regular season. Auston Matthews is probably the league’s best goal scorer, but William Nylander is the one who has shined this season with 87 points in 66 games. Mitch Marner is also up to his usual antics, registering four points in his last five games.
During the month of March, the Leafs have played fine at 5-on-5 play. They’re the 13th-best team in expected goals with a 52.27 xGF%, but defensively have struggled with a 3.32 xGA/60.
What’s stunning is that Toronto’s power play has been mostly inept in this 10-game stretch. It’s scored at an unlikely 11.5% clip, and the penalty kill is just as bad at 72.5%.
Ilya Samsonov has started the majority of the games, and we haven’t seen Joseph Woll in a number of games. Prior to his injury, Woll seemed to be the answer to all Toronto’s prayers in net. His last two starts resulted in losses, but he deserves another look with a .911 SV% and a 7.8 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Philadelphia Flyers
A lot of wealth has been spread on the Flyers. Travis Konecny is having a great season, and has registered four points in the last three games. Owen Tippett is on fire as well, and notched three assists Saturday, while Joel Farabee potted two goals. One omission is that we won’t see Sean Couturier, who will be a healthy scratch due to having only one goal in his last 27 games.
Couturier isn’t the only one struggling. The Flyers as a whole are down considerably at 5-on-5 offense with a 47.49 xGF%. Defensively, they’re performing well though with a 3.04 xGA/60.
The special teams have also been a problem of late. Philadelphia’s power play is scoring at a lowly 12.9% clip, and its penalty kill is at 72.7%.
Goaltending is certainly a hot topic in Philadelphia. Samuel Ersson has had a fine season this year, but has struggled of late with an .804 SV% in his last three starts. He’s one of those goalies that if he’s on, he’s great, but once he lets in a bad goal or two, it opens the floodgates.
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given how both of these teams have underperformed recently, I’m anticipating a high-scoring game. The Flyers are a stout defensive team, but their penalty kill is abysmal. Top it off with the inconsistent goaltending from Ersson, and it could be open season.
I have more faith in Toronto’s depth than I do Philadelphia's. The Flyers have committed the seventh-most penalties this season, and their lacking penalty kill plays right into Toronto’s strength. While the Leafs’ power play has struggled over the past 10 games, they’re so much more capable than what they have done.
Toronto averages around 3.6 goals per game, while the Flyers average close to 3 per game. Given that these teams played each other Thursday and the Leafs came out on top 6-2, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-105)
