Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -110 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110o / -130u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday, February22 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Toronto has been on a heater since losing Morgan Rielly to suspension. The Maple Leafs have gone 5-0 with a win against the Coyotes last night.
Now with Rielly coming back, the Leafs can continue at full strength. They still have a ways to go to reach the top of the Atlantic Division, but it’s a good start.
Vegas has gone through it as of late, especially given its injury issues. The Golden Knights lost on Tuesday against the Predators, and they've gone 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. Luckily, they’re pretty strong at home, where they're 19-8-2.
Here's my Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction and pick for tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last night, Auston Matthews made history.
Matthews became the fastest U.S.-born player to reach 50 goals in a season.
Not only that, he’s posted nine goals in his last four games, including two consecutive hat tricks.
AUSTON MATTHEWS HAS 50 GOALS IN 54 GAMES! 🚨
We are truly witnessing something special. pic.twitter.com/gyPVh75eQ5
— NHL (@NHL) February 22, 2024
Next to him, William Nylander is riding high with goals in five straight, and Mitch Marner has 17 points in his last eight.
With all the firepower that comes with the Leafs, it’s no surprise they’re one of the better 5-on-5 teams. This past month, they’re ranked 12th in expected goals with a 51.38 xGF% and 11th defensively with a 2.53 xGA/60.
For years, Toronto has had one of the best power plays, and this season is no different. It’s ranked second, scoring at a 28.7% clip, but the penalty kill needs work at 77.4%.
With Ilya Samsonov starting last night, we’ll probably see Martin Jones suit up for Toronto. Jones has played pretty well given his career numbers. Problem is in his last seven games, he’s posted a pretty dreadful .860 SV%, so he’s already vulnerable.
Vegas Golden Knights
When one man returns, another man falls.
The Golden Knights got back Shea Theodore from IR, only to put captain Mark Stone on it after Tuesday’s loss. Vegas has been brutalized with injuries, but luckily for them, Jonathan Marchessault has lit up the scoresheet. Not to mention, Ivan Barbashev and Nicolas Roy have proven to be extremely vital.
Amidst this rough stretch, Vegas has had a fairly ineffective 5-on-5 game. This month, it’s ranked 23rd with a 45.99 xGF% and 13th with a 2.58 xGA/60.
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To that point, there’s nothing spectacular about the Knights’ special teams. They score on the power play slightly less than 20% of the time, and the penalty kill has fared decently at 80.6%.
I fully expect to see Adin Hill between the pipes tonight. Despite losing in three straight starts, Vegas has leaned on Hill to be its guy. Although he has played to sub-.900 hockey in the last three games, he still has a stifling .929 SV% and a third-best 19.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
With the Maple Leafs getting into it with the Coyotes last night, you’d think that maybe there would be little gas. On the tail end of back-to-backs, Toronto is 4-3, which is solid, but also unpredictable.
Jones being in net worries me for the Leafs. The stretch he’s been on is definitely worrisome, and goaltending as a whole is a pain point for Toronto.
Vegas will once again be missing Jack Eichel, and now Stone to boot. Missing two of the team's leading scorers is not ideal, and Hill hasn’t played like a premier goalie the past few games. Thing is, I like the Knights’ depth. They continue to roll out the next man up, and they always continue to thrive.
This one’s a tough one as it’s pretty even, but I’m backing the Leafs tonight. Despite their unpredictability on the tail end of back-to-backs, they’re 16-6-6 on the road. While Vegas is efficient at T-Mobile Arena, Toronto has proven to perform at a higher level when everything is working against it.
The Leafs are widely available at +100 odds, but we'll jump on the outlier of +110 at PointsBet, which is available at the time of this writing. Play it down to -105.
