Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | -137 |
| Islanders Odds | +114 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -118 / -104 |
After months of underperforming, the Toronto Maple Leafs have finally turned a corner. Toronto has won four in a row and has a 5-2-1 record over its past eight games. More importantly, its efforts are backed up with some sterling analytics.
Still, we have to be weary of at least a few factors ahead of the Leafs' tilt versus the New York Islanders. Scheduling and goaltending issues are underlying concerns for Toronto, and that's without even considering the Islanders' improving metrics or home-ice advantage.
The betting line may be shifting in favor of the visitors, but we're taking a contrarian approach as we make our Maple Leafs vs. Islanders pick.
Toronto Maple Leafs
All is good in Toronto. The Maple Leafs locked up William Nylander to an eight-year deal, keeping the core four intact for at least the foreseeable future. Martin Jones has stabilized the blue paint, and the Maple Leafs are finally starting to recapture their elite analytics form. But Jones' play is unsustainable, and Toronto is contending with some challenging travel arrangements ahead of this Eastern Conference showdown.
The Leafs returned home on Tuesday night, following up a successful three-game California road trip. However, their time in Toronto was brief as they now travel to New York to face the Islanders. Since last Tuesday, the Leafs have logged a lot of miles across multiple time zones. In fact, this will be their fifth straight game in a different arena.
The more pressing issue is Jones' inevitable date with regression. Over the past few seasons, Jones has established himself as a quality backup netminder. Nothing more. His 93.5% save percentage is substantially higher than his five-year average of 89.5%. Moreover, Jones' 10.0 goals saved above average in 12 games with the Leafs is wildly different from the -78.9 he's accumulated since 2018-19.
New York Islanders
New York's standing has taken a bit of a hit more recently, and that's reflected in their betting price for this matchup. The Islanders opened as short-home underdogs, but the price quickly shifted away from them. Nevertheless, there are a few green sprouts poking through with their recent efforts, suggesting they are ideal buy-low candidates at home.
Although goaltending has propped them up this season, defense hasn't been the Islanders' forte. New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories as its allowing the second-most scoring chances and third-most high-danger opportunities. But the Islanders' more recent efforts show substantial improvement. Over the past three games, New York is limiting its opponents to 9.7 high-danger chances, below its season-long average of 10.8. Scoring opportunities have fallen more modestly to 26.0, compared to the Isles' season average of 26.6.
Predictably, the Islanders have been much better on home ice this season. At UBS Arena, New York has a 51.1% expected goals for rating, above their overall rating of 48.6%. The more compelling factor is the expected positive regression. The Isles are operating below their expected value at home, putting up a 48.2% actual goals-for rating. Combined with their .997 PDO, wins should start to come more naturally for the Islanders on home ice.
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Maple Leafs are typically a public-backed team, meaning more money will continue to pour in on them ahead of puck drop. As such, waiting could yield better ROI and closing line value. Nevertheless, we are still comfortably playing the Islanders at +114 or better.
Too many factors are working against the Leafs, and regression is an unforgiving mistress.
Pick: Islanders +114
