Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | +134 |
| Rangers Odds | -162 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +114 / -140 |
Here's everything you need to know about Maple Leafs vs. Rangers on Tuesday, Dec. 12 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
One night after a hotly contested and emotional affair on Long Island, the Toronto Maple Leafs get a tough matchup at MSG versus the conference-leading New York Rangers. As bettors piece this spot together with Martin Jones likely to start for the Leafs, the market has corrected the Rangers price to -165.
Let's dive into the NHL odds and how that movement was predictable, as well as my favorite prop and Maple Leafs vs. Rangers predictions.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Rangers opened on Monday night as -135 favorites, but have ticked all the way up to -165. The two main reasons why both relate to Toronto, so let's break down that movement and why it was predictable.
Playing in night two of a back-to-back situation makes a team roughly four percent less likely to win a game, depending on how long of a sample you draw from. There are further factors like length of travel or if a team is playing three-in-four situation, but as a general rule, four percent is effective.
Once Toronto announced Ilya Samsonov was going to start Monday against the Islanders, that made it highly likely that third-stringer Martin Jones would get the start Tuesday. Teams will almost never go back-to-back with their top option at this point, unless the need for two points is extremely dire.
Considering those two factors, the Rangers seemed to open as too short of a favorite, and the market has since moved accordingly. These concepts are not complicated, and are easy to employ even for entirely recreational bettors. If you think getting the best prices is fun, keep those in mind.
So let's quickly talk Leafs. They have looked only slightly better than average at even strength recently, and are now actually employing a below-average NHL defensive core. Auston Matthews and the big guns have more or less done their thing, but the rest of the team's play looks relatively weak.
With Joseph Woll in goal, you can power rank them right around 8-10 in the league, just as they sit in the standings.
Jones is a below-average goaltending option, though, and his confirmation to play does move the needle. His last meaningful sample of NHL work came with Seattle in 2022-23, where he put up an .887 save % in 48 appearances.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have been relatively average at even strength this season, but are top 10 in both special teams categories. Considering the results of a similar roster in previous years, that is not surprising.
At even strength, the Rangers own a 28th ranked xGA/60 this season of 3.01. That's not a mark I entirely agree with, and aside from recent performances in Washington and Ottawa, it seems the Rangers have defended far better than that.
The excellent results of all three netminders are somewhat of an indicator that New York is pressuring chances and preventing seam plays better than the data fully suggests.
Similar to previous seasons, if you're going to play even with New York at 5-on-5, it's not necessarily a good thing. It owns a powerplay rating at 30%, which has consistently been excellent with this roster core. It also owns an eighth-best penalty kill, succeeding 84.7% of the time.
The Rangers will be without their second-most important defender in K'Andre Miller tonight, who will miss the game for personal reasons.
Igor Shesterkin will start in goal. He has played to a +5.6 GSAx and .908 save % in 16 appearances.
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rangers were an excellent play at the opening prices near -135, but have trended all the way to -160 or larger where there is little value. The important NHL betting concept to take away from that, is that this line movement toward the Rangers was predictable.
Toronto was always likely to start Jones in leg two of this back-to-back, yet the markets still opened as if that wasn't the case. This happens surprisingly often betting the NHL, so I recommend keeping that in mind. Think about the spot the night before if you are serious about looking to get the best numbers.
My favorite remaining play from this game is backing Mika Zibanejad to score at +195. The Rangers have a high implied team total in this matchup, and I believe are likely to pay that off.
Outside of the Rangers' dismal team performance in Washington, Zibanejad has been looking more threatening at even strength as well. His ability to score from further out is appealing to me in this matchup, as those kinds of marginal goals become far more likely against Jones.
Pick: Mika Zibanejad Goal +195 (FanDuel)
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