Devils vs. Red Wings Odds
| Devils Odds | -110 |
| Red Wings Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSDET |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
The Detroit Red Wings and New Jersey Devils parallel each other in many ways this season, and Tuesday's matchup could be especially crucial with each likely vying for the same wild-card playoff berth.
New Jersey suffered an all-too-common loss Monday, as the Devils heavily outplayed Washington yet could not finish, and received shaky net-minding in a 6-3 defeat.
Detroit has not lost in regulation yet this season with a record of 3-0-2, which includes a 5-2 win at New Jersey in the Devils' home opener.
Devils Should Expect Better Results
Through six games of the new season, New Jersey's fans have suffered through the exact same painful losses we saw far too often a season ago.
The Devils have controlled an incredible amount of the overall play in the vast majority of their games, yet have just a .500 record to show for it, due in large to some poor finishing and awful goaltending.
New Jersey owns an expected goals for mark of 65.6% this season, which is the top mark in the league to this point.
When you watch New Jersey that elite expected goals rate has not seemed at all out of line, and in particularly I believe the Devils' offensive play has looked among the best in the entire league.
The Devils have scored just 2.83 goals per game, though, which is good for just 24th in the league. A notable uptick should be coming in the near future when more of these quality chances get finished.
Defensively, I still am not entirely sold the Devils are as spectacular as their league-best xGA/60 rating of 2.33 suggests, but I do still feel that New Jersey is playing effective hockey in that aspect altogether as well.
The greatest flaw for New Jersey is clearly going to be goaltending again this season, as the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood have been shaky in the early going.
Blackwood started the contest last night and therefore we should see Vanecek called upon for this contest, particularly considering Blackwood's night was fairly shaky.
Vanecek has struggled to a -3.4 goals saved above expected rating with a .773 save percentage throughout two appearances this season, however his play in Washington was far better than that last season and I expect him to trend towards more livable results moving forward.
That's all the Devils may need, and it will be interesting to see if Vanecek can bounce-back Tuesday.
Red Wings Have Overachieved
Detroit has also controlled play at an effective level in the early going this season with a 53.37 xGF% across all strengths, and has been rewarded much more so than the Devils with a 3-0-2 record.
It's by no means surprising that the duo of Ville Husso and Alex Ndeljkovic has outperformed New Jersey's tandem, but better goaltending and a far better team shooting percentage have the Wings achieving considerably better early results then New Jersey.
The Red Wings have scored 2.75 goals above expected this season, and I would argue that without Jakub Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi this is simply not a unit which should overachieve the expected goal mark moving forward.
Husso had a quality outing Sunday versus Anaheim, and I would lean toward him receiving a chance to follow up that start from Derek Lalonde Tuesday, although he and Ndeljkovic will likely continue to split starts fairly evenly.
Husso has played to a +0.1 goals saved above expected rating with a .939 save % throughout three appearances this season.
Devils vs. Red Wings Pick
The Devils' goaltending will likely be shaky all season long, and defensively the eye test says this team isn't as amazing as the analytics, but it's clear watching the Devils early on the greatest problem has simply been a lack of finish.
That problem shined through abundantly yet again versus the Caps Monday, and I just can not resist going back to the well with this team, because eventually more of these chances for are going to go in and lead to some more wins.
Detroit has played a similarly soft schedule as New Jersey, and I believe with Bertuzzi and Vrana out of the lineup the Devils are skating more truly capable offensive producers.
We are going to have to put trust in Vanecek besting Husso, but I see value doing so down to a price of -120 due to the fact that New Jersey will likely control more of the play, and has what I believe is a very capable group of finishers even if that hasn't shown through yet this season.
Pick:New Jersey Devils Moneyline -110 (Play to -120)
