Oilers vs. Ducks Odds
| Oilers Odds | -210 |
| Ducks Odds | +172 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +106 |
The Oilers will look to continue their charge up the Western Conference standings as they face an Anaheim team that has lost 18 of its past 24 games after a surprisingly strong start to the campaign.
Edmonton Oilers
Despite ranking 19th in the league on points percentage, the Oilers are still priced among the outright favorites at +1100. That might seem absurd to some observers, but the Western Conference wild-card race still looks very soft, and the Oilers underlying profile is excellent.
They would benefit from the addition of one more quality right side defender, as well as another depth scoring winger. Cody Ceci has not played overly well and Leon Draisaitl has one well below average second line option on his wing on most occasions.
Even still, the Oilers have played to a 12-3-0 record under new head coach Kris Knoblauch, with a goal differential of +29. They have scored 4.21 goals per game in his 15-game tenure, with an xGF/60 of 4.29 across all strengths, which paces the league by a significant margin. The next highest xGF/60 over that span is the Leafs at 3.85.
Its also interesting to note that Edmonton is pacing the league in chances created at even strength in the Knoblauch era by a significant margin.
Knoblauch certainly lucked out in terms of when he took over and is getting credit for a bit of a placebo effect in some areas. The Oilers were running extremely unlucky in terms of their underlying numbers when he came on board, and had played with Connor McDavid at far from full health.
The Oilers were expected to be the NHL's best offensive team this season and have played to that expectation under Knoblauch.
The concern, which will be highlighted in tonight's matchup, is that as Jack Campbell has completely fallen apart, the Oilers do not have a compelling backup goaltending option. Calvin Pickard has played respectably with a -1.0 GSAx and .898 save % across five NHL appearances this season. Such form is unlikely to continue though, which is the reason reports are popping up about Edmonton's desire to add another goaltending option.
As Stuart Skinner played Saturday versus Los Angeles, Pickard is expected to start Sunday.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks haven't lost 18 of their past 24 games by accident. They have allowed the most chances against in the league, with a 3.90 xGA/60 rating. Even with goaltender John Gibson offering the best results we've seen in several seasons, the Ducks have allowed 3.45 goals against per game.
Injuries have been somewhat of a valid excuse as both Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras have missed the majority of those contests. Even with them in the mix though, the Ducks still project to be one of the worst defensive teams in hockey. Zegras should bounce back on the offensive side of things, but he's far from a strong defensive player.
Troy Terry is day-to-day and could potentially miss this matchup. He seems more on the doubtful side than anything, so keep your eyes on his status.
Gibson is likely to start in goal, but has played two straight and is not yet confirmed. He owns a +8.7 GSAx and .909 save % across 23 appearances this season.
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Oilers vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
If the Ducks can generate anything of substance on offensive, they should be able to put together a respectable offensive output in this game, as I still view Pickard as a pure fade candidate in goal. With Edmonton playing the second leg of a back-to-back, we could potentially see the Ducks surprise and create more chances than expected.
Seeing Anaheim suppress Edmonton's high-powered offense would be quite surprising though. The Ducks have been the worst defensive team in the league over a large sample, while Edmonton has been the best offensive side. The Ducks could benefit from some soft goals off of Pickard and force the Oilers to skate their offensive superstars more minutes.
We have seen more totals set at 7 recently, and with Pickard likely to go for the Oilers, this should be one of them. Backing the game to go over 6.5 at anything better than -135 holds value.
Pick: Over 6.5 -130 (FanDuel, Play 6.5 to -140)
