Oilers vs. Stars Odds, Preview
| Oilers Odds | +110 |
| Stars Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Oilers vs Stars odds for Game 1 on Thursday, May 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will clash in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. This electrifying series features two teams with some of the best offenses and defenses in the NHL.
With Dallas dropping the first game in each of its two previous series, and with Edmonton energized off an intense series against the Vancouver Canucks, the Stars must set the tone early and take advantage of the lengthy rest they gained by ending their series against the Avalanche early.
Let’s delve into a detailed analysis of both teams to get a comprehensive view of this matchup with our Oilers vs. Stars preview and Game 1 prediction.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have been an offensive powerhouse throughout the season, ranking third in Corsi percentage during the regular season and maintaining strong puck possession during the playoffs. They led the league in xG% (expected goals percentage) during the regular season and continue to dominate in the playoffs, holding the top spot among all teams.
Considering Edmonton also held the top spot in both Expected Goals for and High Danger Chances during the regular season, the Oilers' ability to generate quality scoring opportunities is unparalleled. This prowess has carried over into the playoffs, where they are ranked second and first, respectively.
To top it all off, Edmonton’s power play has been a significant weapon, boasting the fifth-most power-play goals in the regular season and topping the playoff charts. With superstars in Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman – who all rank in the top 30 in points this season – it is no wonder they are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.
Defensively, the Oilers have been solid, ranking ninth in Expected Goals Against during the regular season and second in the playoffs. However, they were fifth in High Danger Chances Against during the regular season. However, that has slipped to seventh in the playoffs, indicating some vulnerability – especially against a Dallas team that possesses elite depth across all four lines.
Edmonton’s penalty kill has shown improvement, allowing the fewest shorthanded goals in the playoffs compared to their 14th-place finish in the regular season. Stuart Skinner, the Oilers' starting goaltender, had a decent regular season save percentage that ranked 36th out of 98 goalies. However, his performance hasn't been exceptionally reliable in the playoffs, ranking 10th out of 15 goalies in GAA (goals against average) with at least four starts.
Dallas Stars
The Stars have proven to be a well-rounded team. Dallas boasts an offense that shares the wealth and operates with exceptional cohesion.
Offensively, the Stars ranked fifth in Corsi percentage during the regular season and have dipped to eighth in the playoffs, reflecting their ability to control puck possession effectively even though they faced the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights and another extremely potent offense in the Avalanche – who won the Stanley Cup the year prior to the Knights – in their previous two rounds.
Dallas’ xG% is also impressive, ranking fourth in the regular season and third in the playoffs. The Stars' ability to convert opportunities is highlighted by their Expected Goals For, where they ranked ninth in the regular season and are first among playoff teams. Additionally, they have improved significantly in generating high-danger chances, moving from 15th in the regular season to second in the playoffs. Their power play has also been effective, ranking fifth among playoff teams.
Defensively, the Stars have been solid. They ranked sixth in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season and have maintained that strength in the playoffs.
Dallas has also been adept at limiting high-danger chances, ranking seventh in the regular season and second in the playoffs, which is crucial in high-stakes games. That will become even more of a factor against a superstar-laden team like Edmonton, which can punish Dallas from anywhere on the ice.
The Stars' penalty kill had been reliable and gave up the sixth-fewest penalty kill goals during the regular season. However, the team has allowed the second most in the playoffs. Dallas will need to shore up its shorthanded defense as Edmonton has dominated in that aspect during the postseason. The Stars have been disciplined, however, with the fewest penalty minutes in both the regular season and the playoffs.
The key factor for Dallas is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has been stellar and ranks second in GAA and third in goals saved above expected among playoff goalies. He had major ups and downs during the regular season, but he's reverted to his Stanley Cup-caliber form in the postseason.
Oilers vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Considering the statistical insights and current dynamics, the best bet for tonight's big Game 1 of the Western Conference Final is the Stars moneyline at -130 odds.
Here’s why:
- Defensive Solidity: Dallas has demonstrated strong defensive metrics, limiting high-danger chances and minimizing penalties, which will be crucial in a tightly contested game. The Stars boast the better defense and the energized Dallas crowd should provide a significant advantage.
- Goaltending Advantage: Oettinger’s superior playoff performance gives Dallas a significant edge over Edmonton and Skinner, who has struggled in the postseason.
The Stars' combination of offensive dominance, defensive consistency and goaltending excellence gives them the edge in the series opener tonight.
Pick: Stars Moneyline (-130 at bet365)
