Panthers vs. Avalanche Odds
| Panthers Odds | +115 |
| Avalanche Odds | -135 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
After winning their sixth consecutive game in regulation, the Panthers are playing the best hockey of any team in the league. However, that win came at a cost as both Aleksander Barkov and Evan Rodrigues suffered injuries and are listed as day-to-day.
Nathan MacKinnon continues to drive an Avalanche attack that has scored 4.16 goals for per game over a recent 9-2-1 tear.
This should be an excellent matchup, so let's get to the Panthers vs. Avalanche pick.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers' offense has stabilized during its six-game win streak and Florida looks to be as complete a team as there is in the NHL. The Panthers have scored four goals in five of their past six game and are beginning to look more like the highly competent offensive side we have seen in prior seasons.
Their underlying profile has always suggested that their offensive play was significantly better than average this season, but they have finished quality chances at a well-below-average rate. They have scored -33.87 goals above expected this season, which is by far the furthest a team is away from its expected output.
Considering the quality of finishing talents on hand, it seems highly unlikely that mark will continue moving forward. The Panthers were viewed as a potential offensive powerhouse entering the year and still deserve to be viewed as such.
Florida has been excellent defensively as well however, which is why we are continuing to see more and more talk about the possibility of a return to the Stanley Cup Final. Their 2.87 xGA/60 over the past 10 games ranks fourth in the league.
Potentially losing two pieces of one of the best lines in hockey with Barkov and Rodrigues potentially out is significant though. Barkov's absence in particular holds significant value, as he has been the best defensive forward in hockey — putting up 39 points in 35 games.
It seems doubtful that Barkov will play in this contest, but keep your eyes out for further word as his status does have significant handicapping value.
Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to start in goal. He owns 10.4 GSAx and a .914 save percentage across 24 appearances this season.
Colorado Avalanche
Despite offering some legitimate roster flaws and not entirely jelling as a team, the Avalanche have won nine of their past 12 and sit fourth in points percentage league wide. That truly outlines how high their floor is due to a ridiculous combination of elite talents.
Nathan MacKinnon is making an excellent case for the Hart Trophy with 64 points in 39 games. Cale Makar would probably also be in the conversation if he were skating on a team separate from MacKinnon. Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews and Valeri Nichushkin have all played true to their high expectations as well.
The rest of the roster hasn't been overly convincing however, and the Avalanche are as top heavy a team as there is in the league.
The Avalanche's 9-2-1 run has surely helped ease some concerns, though that run hasn't come against the best opposing offenses.
Alexandar Georgiev has played to an .897 save percentage and has three goals saved above expected in 32 appearances this season. He is likely to get the start Saturday, although the ultimate decision between he and Ivan Prosvetov does not hold significant handicapping value.
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Panthers vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Avalanche have quietly received shaky goaltending for over a month and Georgiev's priors don't necessarily suggest that he'll bounce back to being an above average netminder. Colorado hasn't been as strong defensively as we've seen in years past, and its lack of depth could be a flaw against the Panthers.
However, all of those problems have been solved by electric offensive play and — for the time being — I think that'll continue to be the case.
The Panthers have played well in all areas and are one of the best defensive sides in the league. Barkov's potential absence actually works as a net win for the over, despite the fact that it obviously hurts the Panthers ability to score. Barkov has been the league's best defensive forward and would have been crucial to shutting down the MacKinnon line.
Without Barkov, Florida stills holds a lot of potent offensive pieces. The Panthers have generated chances at an elite rate this season and have scored well below expectations, prior to this recent surge. They likely can still put together a solid total here against a Colorado team allowing a lot of goals.
Colorado sets up a pure over team for the time being, and this matchup is a reasonable time for that to continue. Betting the game to go over at anything better than -110 holds value.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105) | Play to -110
