Penguins vs. Canadiens Odds
| Penguins Odds | -150 |
| Canadiens Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
Pittsburgh managed to stop its four-game slide with a 4-2 victory over Arizona on Tuesday, but at 12-12-3, the Penguins can't be satisfied with just one win.
We'll look into the team's chances of winning tonight as we preview the upcoming odds and offer a Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction and pick for Wednesday night.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic is likely to start Wednesday after Tristan Jarry got the nod Tuesday, but it might not hurt the Penguins.
While Jarry's having a strong campaign, Nedeljkovic has done well in his limited opportunities, posting a 2-2-1 record, 2.18 GAA and .937 save percentage in five starts. So goaltending might not be an issue for Pittsburgh tonight.
Instead, the bigger X factor is Pittsburgh's offense. For a team featuring stars Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jake Guentzel up front along with two of the best offensive defensemen of their era in Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang, the Penguins have struggled to find the back of the net, ranking 23rd with just 2.93 goals per game.
None of those five is the problem. Crosby, Malkin and Guentzel have combined for 37 goals and 82 points through 27 outings while Karlsson and Letang have contributed 19 and 14 points, respectively.
Instead, there hasn't been enough contributed by the supporting cast. Tuesday was the rare exception with Jeff Carter netting two goals to help the Penguins best the Coyotes, but typically he's part of the problem. Even after that showing, he still has just four points in 21 contests while consuming $3.1 million in cap space.
Pittsburgh has just six players with at least four goals. Florida, which ranks 16th offensively, has eight players in that position while Vancouver, which ranks first, has seen 10 players reach that threshold.
If there's a silver lining, it's that the Penguins are 3-0-0 in the second half of back-to-backs this campaign while outscoring the competition 11-4 over those contests. Pittsburgh also has been about as good on the road (6-6-2) as it has at home (6-6-1).
The Penguins have their issues, but they also haven't collapsed under adversity, which is worth remembering going into a game in which they'll be playing tired.
Montreal Canadiens
With a 12-13-3 record, Montreal has had a similar campaign as Pittsburgh, but the circumstances couldn't be more different.
The Penguins are trying to find some way to squeeze another Stanley Cup run out of their aging core before time runs out, but the Canadiens are a young team that hasn't truly begun its window yet.
If anything, the Canadiens hovering around a PTS% is impressive after finishing 31-45-6 last year. Clearly, the Canadiens still have plenty of work ahead of them, though.
Pittsburgh's offense has left something to be desired, but Montreal's is even worse, ranking 27th with just 2.61 goals per game.
What puts Montreal a class below Pittsburgh is a lack of star power. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are solid top-six forwards, but with 22 and 20 points, respectively, through 28 contests, they haven't done enough to drive the offense.
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To put that into perspective, Pittsburgh has three forwards (Guentzel, Crosby and Malkin) who would take the throne as Montreal's scoring leader if any of them swapped teams tonight. Pittsburgh also has 10 players who have scored at least four goals – its big three forwards plus Bryan Rust – while the Canadiens have none.
Unlike Pittsburgh, the Canadiens haven't gotten much help from their defense either. The Canadiens are tied for 27th in xGA/60 (3.46) and, thanks to their mediocre goaltending, Montreal is 25th in goals allowed per game (3.39).
You might wonder: If Montreal's offense pales to Pittsburgh's and its goaltending is worse, then how does it have nearly as good a record?
The simple answer is when Montreal wins, it wins small. The Canadiens have a .563 winning percentage in one-goal games while being 0-8 in contests decided by three or more goals. By contrast, the Penguins have just a .250 winning percentage in one-goal games, but they are 6-4 in contests with a final gap of at least three markers.
Penguins vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
Looking at the expected goals differential per 60 best illustrates the gap between these two teams on paper: Pittsburgh is in a three-way tie for eighth with plus-0.27 while Montreal ranks 29th with -0.73.
Or if you want a more straightforward metric: Pittsburgh has scored eight more goals than it's allowed while Montreal has surrendered 21 more than it's scored.
So it's not surprising oddsmakers are painting the Penguins as the heavy favorites despite these teams' similar records. It also makes Montreal tempting, given the potential payout combined with Pittsburgh's recent struggles. I just don't feel comfortable enough in Montreal to make that recommendation, though, so I'm instead picking Under 6.5 goals.
With how poor Pittsburgh's offense has been lately (just seven goals over its last four games), and coupled with the Canadiens' lackluster scoring, this has the potential to be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 6.5 goals (-110 at Betway) | Play down to -120
