Penguins vs Capitals Odds
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -112o / -109u | -124 |
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -240 | 6.5 -112o / -109u | +102 |
The new-look Pittsburgh Penguins will attempt to bounce back from a discouraging opening-night loss in an exciting matchup against the rival Washington Capitals.
Washington will skate for the first time under new head coach Spencer Carbery.
He will be tasked with turning around one of the NHL's oldest rosters, which features a number of stars past their primes.
But there are some reasons for optimism.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Last season Pittsburgh started the campaign with a dreadful injury situation with a number of key stars out of the lineup.
The Penguins went 4-0-1 in their opening five games with a +14 goal differential before ultimately missing the playoffs altogether.
The start of the season may not indicate much, and Pens fans will hope that is the case regarding Tuesday's 4-2 loss at home to the lowly Blackhawks. Pittsburgh allowed a lofty total of 36 shots on goal and 3.93 expected goals in the matchup.
In last season's final 30 games, the Penguins played to a 54% xGF rating despite allowing 3.32 expected goals against per game. They allowed 30.7 shots on goal per game, but generated 35.9 on target themselves.
The point is that Pittsburgh was playing some notably high-event hockey to end last season.
While their bottom six forward group should be better defensively, we should still expect relatively high event contests from the Pens.
The acquisition of last year's Norris Trophy-winning defender Erik Karlsson is a key reason why. He was true to form in the opener with some strong looks in the offensive zone, but he also had shaky plays in the neutral zone and defensive end.
Tristan Jarry has been confirmed as Pittsburgh's starter in this matchup. Jarry struggled to a -2.8 GSAx in the 2022-23 season across 47 appearances.
Whether or not Jarry is able to stay healthy and find top form is a key question mark regarding Pittsburgh's potential this season.
Washington Capitals
The greatest reason why the Penguins should be viewed as a better side than Washington is that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jake Guentzel are still playing like elite stars at the NHL level.
Washington did not receive strong performances from any of its top stars last season, relative to playoff teams. Alex Ovechkin did his thing with 42 goals and 75 points, but he did not control more of the play at even strength effectively.
Even still, Ovechkin's play was the least of the concerns regarding Washington's stars.
Nicklas Backstrom was a shell of himself last year after returning from major hip surgery. He was skating better in the preseason, and a return to reasonable form could be one cause for optimism in Washington.
T.J. Oshie also offered a disappointing injury-plagued season.
Backstrom and Oshie will pair up on Washington's top unit in tonight's game alongside Ovechkin.
Enigmatic star Evgeny Kuznetsov offered another letdown season, and he enters this year with a number of negative rumors swirling around. Even still, he remained the Capitals' most effective playmaker last season despite disappointing play in other areas. He clearly did not gel with former coach Peter Laviolette, and he was up and down the lineup consistently.
Kuznetsov will skate at even strength tonight alongside Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael.
Of all the Capitals forwards who could who could help the team exceed expectations in 2023-24, Tom Wilson could be the most logical. He returned in early January last season, and he slowly trended into more typical form. He finished with six points and 17 shots on goal in the Capitals' final four contests.
Given a proper summer of offseason training, Wilson should fare better in 2023-24. He made an early case for that notion with a strong preseason which included four points in three games.
Top goaltender Darcy Kuemper's status is up in the air for this contest as his wife gave birth to their first child on Thursday night. He was quietly strong with a +8.8 GSAx and .908 save % last season behind what was a relatively shaky defensive team.
Penguins vs Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Washington has some avenues to be more competitive than most are anticipating this season. It should bring a sharp effort here in Carbery's debut on home ice.
There could be matchups in which Washington is a valuable bet in the near future, and it will be an interesting side to watch out of the gates.
The status of Darcy Kuemper is important and should be considered prior to placing bets on the Capitals.
If you were looking to wager on the Penguins, doing so now could be logical; if Kuemper is announced out, it would change the betting numbers in your favor. If he is to play, I would expect the numbers to hold where they have been all week.
Tom Wilson had a strong preseason and is a candidate to bounce back this season with a productive campaign. He will be used heavily in all situations, and he could even lead Caps forwards in ice time surprisingly often this season. Targeting a strong performance from Wilson in some fashion on Friday night makes sense.
Getting -106 odds for Wilson to record three shots on goal is my favorite price for those options. (You can also find it at -110 at multiple books or -114 at FanDuel, as of this writing.)
Pittsburgh allowed 36 shots against on Opening Night versus a thin Blackhawks team. They won't allow 36 every night, but they should play high-event hockey often. Particularly in Karlsson's minutes on the ice, which will be a ton.
Kuznetsov is still a great playmaker, and he should help Wilson get shots off at even strength.
The Pick: Tom Wilson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-106 at BetRivers)
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