Penguins vs. Oilers Odds
| Penguins Odds | +105 |
| Oilers Odds | -126 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NHL Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here. | |
Hockey fans are in for a treat Monday night when Sidney Crosby and the Penguins head to Edmonton for a matchup with Connor McDavid and the Oilers.
The Oilers went 2-0 in this series last season, but it will be tough to continue their winning streak against the Penguins with how Pittsburgh has played in the early going.
The Penguins have come flying out of the gates this season, managing 5.20 goals for per game and a 4-0-1 record.
Can Edmonton keep Pittsburgh's high-powered offense in check Monday?
Are the Penguins Overvalued After a Hot Start?
Pittsburgh's start to the season has been fantastic, with meaningful offensive contributions from all over the place, leading to six or more goals in all but one outing thus far.
It is worth noting that Pittsburgh has played a far easier than average slate of competition and is now missing arguably its second-most important forward, Jake Guentzel.
The Penguins own the top xGF/60 in the league at 4.51. While some regression is coming to an absurd 5.20 goal per-game average, it is still clear Pittsburgh is generating a ridiculous amount of chances. Crosby has had an incredibly strong start to his 35-year-old season with 10 points in five games. Evgeni Malkin, Crosby's partner in crime in the middle, also has five points.
He's driven the play on a strong second line, which has also received contributions from Jason Zucker, and that is really positive news for Penguins fans.
Zucker was once considered a massive acquisition for the Penguins after his notably strong play with the Minnesota Wild. However, he has fought through some horrific injury luck and ultimately has never moved the needle with Pittsburgh.
Tristan Jarry should get the start in goal for Pittsburgh Monday, and he has played very well with a +3.1 Goals Saved Above Expected rating with a .953 Save % in three starts to open the season.
Will the Oilers' Defense Finally Step Up?
Edmonton's defensive play hasn't been very sharp to open the season, which was a concern that was underrated entering this year.
The Oilers have played to the league's fourth-highest Expected Goals Against per/60 at 3.83 and have allowed 3.40 goals against per game.
Darnell Nurse is a massive key to Edmonton's success, but he has struggled defending in the early going throughout five-on-five play.
That's a concern which could continue moving forward, and ultimately I do not believe that Edmonton's defense is ready to finally make the jump in the postseason as others.
In five contests, the Oilers have played to a surprisingly poor 47.02 xGF%. Even as someone who is a skeptic of this team, it is clear that the offense is among the best in the league. Teams simply won't keep Draisaitl and McDavid in check too often, especially with more talent on the wings than in previous seasons.
That makes me believe Edmonton is destined to play a lot of higher scoring hockey this season. Even if the plan from coach Jay Woodcroft is to get comfortable playing lower scoring playoff-style contests, I don't see them actually playing that way with the Oilers' top heavy offense and defensive concerns.
Jack Campbell was spectacular Saturday versus St. Louis, but I believe he is still realistically a middle of the pack starting option in net this season.
Campbell played to a -2.3 GSAx rating and .914 save % in Toronto last season. He has a -1.8 GSAx and .889 save % in his first four appearances with Edmonton.
Penguins vs. Oilers Pick
Many over bettors such as myself were thoroughly disappointed with Edmonton's quiet 2-0 loss Saturday afternoon, in a game in which most would have expected a lot of offense against St. Louis.
Nonetheless, Pittsburgh's offense has been clicking on all cylinders in the early going this season overall. Although we should see regression soon, particularly with Guentzel sidelined, I don't expect it to be in this matchup.
Edmonton simply has not defended very well at all in the early going this season, and I don't believe that is entirely surprising with the roster on hand.
To see the Oilers hold the Pens to fewer than three goals in this spot would be quite surprising, especially if Campbell does not play as superbly as he did Saturday, which is also realistic.
Yet to see the Pens hold McDavid and Draisaitl to quiet offensive nights would also be quite surprising, and this should make for another really fun matchup between these two high powered sides.
My favorite play on this contest is the game total to go over 6.5, and I would bet on that down to -140.
Pick: Over 6.5 -130 (Play to -140)
