Rangers vs. Capitals Prediction
| Rangers Odds | -196 |
| Capitals Odds | +162 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -106o / -114u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Rangers vs. Capitals Game 4 on Sunday, April 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Capitals entered this series as heavy underdogs, and they've done nothing to alter expectations. Now down 3-0 in the series, will they at least be able to avoid the sweep? We'll examine that possibility while previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Rangers vs. Capitals prediction.
New York Rangers
The Rangers' success has started with Igor Shesterkin. He was solid in the regular season with a 36-17-2 record, 2.58 GAA and .912 save percentage in 55 contests, but he has done even better in the first round, stopping 70 of 75 shots (.933 save percentage) through three contests. Shesterkin looks just as impressive if you do a bit of a deeper dive — he has 3.5 Goals Saved Above Expected in the playoffs, which is the second best in the league through Friday's action, behind only Jeremy Swayman.
That strong goaltending alone might have been enough to put the Rangers ahead of Washington in this series, but he's also gotten support. The Rangers have managed 11 goals through three outings, and those markers have been distributed across nine different players. That kind of scoring depth isn't shocking coming out of New York. They had six major powerhouses during the regular season in Artemi Panarin (49 goals, 120 points), Vincent Trocheck (25 goals, 77 points), Chris Kreider (39 goals, 75 points), Mika Zibanejad (26 goals, 72 points), Alexis Lafrenière (28 goals, 57 points) and defenseman Adam Fox (17 goals, 73 points) — along with a supporting cast that is capable of chipping in too.
All that has created a scenario in which the Rangers don't miss a beat even over a stretch when their top scorer in Panarin has been limited to just one point in the series. If Panarin gets going Sunday, all the better, but the Rangers are so deep that their success isn't dependent on that happening.
Washington Capitals
That's in stark contrast to Washington, where Alex Ovechkin being held off the scoresheet through three games has been sorely felt. He was just one of three Capitals players to record at least 20 markers this season, and the only one to hit the 30-goal milestone. Even being given a staggering 11:47 of power-play ice time in Game 3 wasn't enough to get the Capitals' star forward onto the scoresheet, though he did at least finish the contest with four shots after being held to just one over the previous two clashes.
No other forward has picked up the slack. Tom Wilson has done fine with a goal and three points through three games, especially when compared to his 35-point showing in the regular season, but that hasn't been nearly enough to turn the tide. To put it simply, it's unlikely that Washington has the offensive talent to pull off a reverse sweep without Ovechkin getting red hot.
Maybe coach Spencer Carbery will attempt to spark things by starting Darcy Kuemper for the first time in the series. It made sense to use Charlie Lindgren after Kuemper finished the regular season with a 3.31 GAA and an .890 save percentage in 33 appearances, but Lindgren has been unable to hold back the Rangers, allowing 11 goals on 81 shots (.864 save percentage) in the playoffs. Kuemper might not be the answer, but he was the Avalanche's starter in their 2022 championship run — albeit while recording a paltry .902 save percentage in 16 playoff starts that year — and the Capitals are desperate, so perhaps it's worth a shot.
At the same time, the defense also needs to do more. Washington's xGA/60 in the playoffs is 3.67, which suggests Lindgren hasn't been getting much help from those in front of him, so even if Kuemper were to step in and perform adequately, it likely wouldn't be enough to limit the Rangers' offense unless those in front of him play better.
Rangers vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Washington's minus-37 goal differential in the regular season was abysmal, and there's an argument to be made that the Capitals aren't just the worst team among this year's playoff crop, but also one of the worst postseason squads in recent memory. That's not to say that there are no good players on the Capitals or that Washington has no path to victory, but if we're talking about what the most probable outcome is at this stage, then I'd have to say that's the Rangers completing the sweep.
I feel strongly enough about that to recommend taking the Rangers on the puck line, where the spread is 1.5 goals in favor of Washington.
Pick: Rangers Puck Line (+148 via BetRivers | Play to +130)
