Rangers vs Islanders Odds
| Rangers Odds | -150 |
| Islanders Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120o / +100u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders on Sunday, Feb. 18 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Battle of New York will be contested outdoors for the first time since 2014 on Sunday, as the Islanders host the Rangers at MetLife Stadium.
Peter Laviolette has led the Rangers to a 35-16-3 record in his first season as bench boss, and with six straight wins entering this matchup, they own a comfortable lead atop the Metropolitan Division.
The new coach bounce hasn't hit the Islanders the same way at this point, as they own a record of 3-3-2 under Patrick Roy and sit five points back of Detroit for the final wild-card spot.
We can count on a playoff level of intensity when these two rivals battle it out Sunday, and that helps me project value on one of my favorite NHL long-shot bets.
Find my Rangers vs. Islanders prediction and picks below.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have stabilized with six consecutive wins and more well-rounded team play entering this matchup following an ugly stretch of play in early January.
Unlike recent campaigns, they've been less reliant on elite goaltending and special teams to hide a modest share of chances at even strength.
Over the last 10 games, they've played to an even strength expected goal share of 51.5% and allowed only 2.48 xGA/60. A soft schedule likely has helped boost that number a little, but they're playing a sharp defensive game ahead of this matchup.
K'Andre Miller has bounced back with an excellent run of play recently, and the Rangers' defensive core has championship-level upside when he's playing at this level.
The greater questions lie up front for the Rangers, and outside of the first round possibly, it's hard to see which playoff contenders they would own more of the play against.
Mika Zibanejad has not played like a compelling top-six center to this point. At even strength, he, Chris Kreider and Blake Wheeler would not fare well relative to what other Eastern Contenders can offer.
Part of Zibanejad's struggles have come because Wheeler had struggled on his wing and could not recapture his game the way general manager Chris Drury would have hoped.
Wheeler was injured Thursday against Montreal and will likely to miss the rest of the season barring a deep playoff run. While it's a sad situation for the player, it's not likely to reduce the Rangers' chances of winning games given how he struggled this year.
Zibanejad had a goal, two assists and four shots on goal Thursday versus Montreal. Jimmy Vesey practiced in Wheeler's role at Saturday's practice and played parts of Thursday's matchup there. It's entirely possible that the Rangers' top line finds better results given the new look. Perhaps it also unlocks some of Zibanejad's offensive potential.
Igor Shesterkin will likely get the start Sunday for New York. He has played to a .902 save percentage and +3.2 GSAx across 34 games played this season.
New York Islanders
This game might be as critical a regular-season spot as you will find for the Islanders, who desperately need to respond to consecutive losses at home to the Flames and Kraken.
Roy has had five days to prepare his side for this matchup against their biggest rival, and aside from what it would mean to win this game, these two points are crucial for their playoff aspirations.
We should expect the urgency and desperation to be there for the Islanders, but without more organized play as a team, a high level of intensity isn't going to amount to much. Their breakouts have often been incohesive this season, and poor timing on neutral-zone regroups has led to some wasted possessions.
Some poorly timed defensive zone breakdowns have also led to losses against Montreal and Vegas recently despite strong overall performances.
The Islanders having five days rest could be key, as it allows for three full practices under a head coach who has been running the show for only eight games.
Roy has looked to implement a more possession-based style and trigger more aggressively in the defensive zone to end spells of sustained possession for the opposition. He has also handed out significantly more ice time to his top-six forwards than his predecessor, Lane Lambert, who relied upon aging depth forwards in far too many crucial spots.
The Islanders have played to a 50.2% expected goal share under Roy. Considering how dreadful their defensive metrics were under Lane Lambert, that's quite a positive comment toward Roy.
It felt like the progress was there before their letdown performances against Calgary and Seattle, and it will be interesting to see how they respond in this pivotal spot.
In all likelihood, Ilya Sorokin will get the start Sunday. He has played to a +12.8 GAR and .911 save percentage across 38 appearances this season.
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Rangers vs Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the added hype surrounding this rivalry game and what it means to the Islanders, in particular, it makes sense to expect both teams to bring highly competitive efforts and display well-organized play.
When hockey games are more sharply contested, we typically see lower scoring and more even score lines throughout.
The Islanders have gone to overtime in 19 of their 53 games played this season. To this point, they often played well enough to stay in games with Sorokin in goal but haven't found ways to put teams away due to a lack of offensive talent down the lineup.
My expectation is they put on a strong performance here and make this one competitive, but it seems tough to believe they pull away from the Rangers.
This looks like a good game script to expect close score lines throughout, and therefore, I view this as a good time to bet on overtime at +350 (three-way draw).
Zibanejad to record over 2.5 shots at -106 (FanDuel) is also worth a look. He's been trending much lower in terms of shot volume than we've seen throughout most of his Rangers career, but part of that struggle was the fact that he, Wheeler and Kreider were not working as a line.
His prior history suggests his volume is due to rise, and I think now is the time to buy with a new look at even strength after a strong game against Montreal.
