Rangers vs. Kings Odds
| Rangers Odds | +110 |
| Kings Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -128 / +104 |
Hockey purists will appreciate Saturday night's showdown between the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers for what it is — a rematch of the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals. Neither team has reached those heights since then, but both are positioned for deep runs in 2024.
The Broadway Blueshirts remain the class of the Metropolitan Division, sitting two points clear of the Philadelphia Flyers with a game in hand.
The Kings haven't matched that effort, but they are sitting comfortably in a playoff spot. LA has a three-point cushion in the Western Conference wild card race, with three fewer games played than the next closest competitors. They can use one of those games to add to their buffer by knocking off the Rangers on Saturday night.
Neither team has looked great lately, but one has a pronounced advantage in this one.
New York Rangers
New York's lead atop the Metropolitan Division has eroded over the last few weeks, along with their underlying metrics. Nine games into 2024, and the Rangers have just three wins to their name. Further, they've been outplayed in two of their past four, resulting in a diminished 45.8% expected goals-for rating. Their downfall in the standings pre-dated their current metrics, but neither support a reversal of fortunes any time soon.
Things aren't getting any easier for the Rangers over their upcoming schedule. New York plays their next three games in the Pacific timezone over the next four days, starting with Saturday's tilt at the Crypto.com Arena.
The Rangers have struggled on the road early in the new year, going 0-3-1 since the calendars turned to January, but their ineffective play stretches back further. Their last road win came back on Dec. 30, part of a 3-6-1 stretch dating back to December 5, 2023. Worse, there are no redeeming qualities to their current profile.
The Rangers are getting steamrolled right now. The Original Six franchise has been out-chanced in high-danger opportunities in three of their last four, posting a disheartening 46.8% high-danger chance rating.
The rest of their metrics are equally disappointing. Only once over the modest four-game sample have the Rangers attempted more scoring opportunities than their opponents resulting in a downtrodden 45.7% scoring chance rating.
Similarly, New York's Corsi rating has fallen below their already underwhelming standard.
New York needs to get its metrics in order before more wins start to follow. Unfortunately, neither is likely to happen against the Kings.
Los Angeles Kings
Like their guests on Saturday night, Los Angeles has been spiraling over its recent sample. The Kings have one insignificant win over their last 11 games, knocking off the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh at the start of the week. However, one of the biggest differences between these teams is that the Kings have metrics supporting improved results over the short term.
LA has been one of the best analytics teams in the NHL this season. They've compiled the third-best Corsi rating and the second-best expected goals-for rating, amplifying their production of their recent sample.
The Kings have outplayed their last four opponents, with a noteworthy 53.6% expected goals-for rating. As usual, their success is premised on solid defensive zone play, with the Kings limiting all but one of their past four opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances.
Still, that hasn't been good enough to help the Kings secure more wins. LA's PDO has cratered to .950 over the 11-game sample, dropping their season-long average to .990, sixth-worst in the league.
Predictably, their actual goals-for rating is well off expected, further substantiating growth from the Kings over their coming games.
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Rangers vs. Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
The 2014 Stanley Cup Final was a long time ago, and as good as the Kings and Rangers have looked this season, neither is towing the line over their recent sample. Still, there are contrasting metrics impacting both squads.
The Rangers have faltered, but they remain stuck in a rut thanks to their lackluster metrics. Conversely, Los Angeles has tilted the ice in their favor recently, but the outcomes have yet to catch up with the improved play.
Consequently, we're taking a chance on the home side at a pick'em price. Some shops have already moved the Kings off -110, but we'd still take a shot with the hosts at -130 or better.
Pick: Kings ML (-110 via Caesars)
