Rangers vs. Panthers Odds, Preview
| Rangers Odds | +150 |
| Panthers Odds | -180 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Rangers vs. Panthers odds for Game 4 on Tuesday, May 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Florida will be looking to level the Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2 following a 5-4 loss Sunday in a game in which the stats suggest the Panthers' strong play should have earned them a better outcome.
On paper, Florida has continued to dominate the series following a smothering 3-0 series-opening win. But the NHL's best regular-season team has seized a pair of overtime wins to take the upper hand in the best-of-seven affair.
Also playing their fourth game in seven nights, the goalies could be starting to feel fatigued. That may open up the nets a bit, giving both teams' offenses another opportunity to push the score higher than we saw in Games 1 and 2 at Madison Square Garden.
Here's my New York vs. Florida pick and Game 4 prediction.
New York Rangers
You've got to be lucky to be good, and the Rangers got more than their fair share of puck luck in Game 3. To be fair, despite being outshot 37-23 and controlling only 30.81% of expected goals at 5-on-5, the only time the Blueshirts trailed in the game was in the first period, for less than five minutes.
And after being dramatically outplayed in the third, they kept things even in overtime until Alex Wennberg beat Sergei Bobrovsky for his first goal of the playoffs.
The Rangers also got crushed on special teams in Game 3, giving up two power-play goals to the Panthers while going 0-for-3 themselves. Their man advantage, which had been so good during the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, is now 0-for-8 against Florida.
But shorthanded goals continue to be a secret weapon, and the Rangers now have five in the playoffs. After Jacob Trouba was whistled for two minors on different players late in the second period Sunday, Barclay Goodrow's 4-2 tally deflated a golden opportunity for Florida to tie the game. Ultimately, it also served as the cushion that got the Rangers to sudden death.
After Jimmy Vesey was sidelined with an upper-body injury that is expected to keep him out week-to-week, Peter Laviolette re-inserted Kaapo Kappo onto his third line while keeping Matt Rempe with Will Cuylle and the suddenly hot Goodrow, though Rempe skated for a playoff-low 4:02 in Game 3.
After suffering a leg injury back in February, veteran Blake Wheeler has been practicing and would be available to make his postseason debut if Laviolette is not superstitious about changing up a winning lineup.
And while Igor Shesterkin didn't have his best game, he still finished with 0.23 goals saved above expected in all situations. Most importantly in the playoffs, he gave up one less goal than his counterpart at the other end of the ice.
Florida Panthers
With a decisive Game 1 win followed by two nail-biting overtime losses, the Panthers find themselves in an unexpected hole. They're controlling 55.35% of expected goals at 5-on-5 through the first three games and their special teams have been lights out.
The Panthers are also healthy and have stuck with the same lineup for all three games of the series so far. But scoring on just 5.41% of their shots at 5-on-5 is uncharacteristically low. Probability suggests they should get better puck luck as the series goes along.
Through the first three games, Bobrovsky has saved 1.14 goals above expected in all situations. That's only a little lower than Shesterkin's 1.96.
But after Bobrovsky gave up two goals or less in his previous seven games, the Panthers could have used one more save Sunday after allowing just 23 shots in 64:47 of game action.
Rangers vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
A good amount of the discourse following Game 3 was about how the Panthers deserved a better fate. And the oddsmakers agreed, setting the home side as -162 moneyline favorites in Game 4.
As of Monday night, that number has gone as low a -176 at some shops, so there's very limited value in backing Florida to even the series.
For Rangers fans, a moneyline as high as +150 at Bet365 offers plenty of incentive to back the Blueshirts to continue to ride this 'team of destiny' narrative and take a stranglehold on the series. The data strongly suggest the tide will turn at some point — we just can't say for sure whether that will be in Game 4.
So, let's look at the total. Since the 5-4 outburst on Sunday featured more scoring than the first two games combined (six total goals), it's not a huge surprise to see the over/under set at a conservative 5.5 goals.
At plus money, the over is worth playing. The Panthers' prodigious offense should be connecting at a higher rate than it has through the first three games, the Rangers' power play should get on track at some point, and both Shesterkin and Bobrovsky could be at less than their best following two straight overtime games.
We might not get to nine again, but six goals is very realistic on Tuesday in Sunrise.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+105 at BetMGM | Play down to -105)
