Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Red Wings Odds | +168 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -205 |
| Over / Under | 7 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs on Sunday, Jan. 14 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Sunday's matchup features a betting total of seven goals, which was borderline unheard of two years ago, and is still rare in this 2023-24 season. Ilya Samsonov making his return to the lineup is a key reason why.
Samsonov has been arguably the league's worst goaltender this season, and he will return versus a Wings side that has scored at the sixth-best rate in the league this season. Meanwhile, Toronto ranks fourth in offensive output with 3.55 goals for per game, but it is their play at the other end of the ice generating headlines after last night's collapse versus Colorado.
Let's preview the upcoming contest and dive into my Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings will arrive after a huge win over the Kings last night, a game in which ultimately was not as convincing as the final scoreline suggested. They scored 1.61 goals above expected, and the eye test would agree with that data. Larkin's goal line snipe and two of the rebound sequences would not typically yield goals at the NHL level.
Whether sustainable or not, the Red Wings continue to finish off chances at a clinical rate. They have scored on 11.98% of all shots taken, which has been a critical factor in their success as they have not averaged very high shot outputs.
They rank 22nd in shots for per 60 this season at 29.24. Over the last month of play that mark has actually dropped down to just 27.27.
The Red Wings current roster makeup suggests that they will continue to be a team that owns more of the overall play. Patrick Kane has been a surprisingly great addition as well, but his greatest asset is creating the types of chances that actually result in goals, and not necessarily increased shot differential.
James Reimer will make the start here versus his former side. He has played to -7.6 GSAx this season with an .889 save % in 12 appearances.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Throughout coach Sheldon Keefe's era the Leafs have been a significantly better defensive team than they are usually given credit for. Even in the playoffs, where everybody knows they have hit a wall under Keefe, the problem has actually been a lack of goal scoring in the vast majority of their key losses.
While this years iteration of the Leafs does feature a slightly less convincing roster in terms of defensive upside, the horrid defensive play seen early on was still exacerbated due to injuries on the blue-line. As they have gotten healthier, their defensive play has stabilized.
In the last 10 games, the Leafs have allowed on 26.33 shots against per 60, which is the fifth-best mark league wide. Martin Jones making seven consecutive starts prior to tonight allowed their goals against totals to stabilize too, but that is set to change as Ilya Samsonov will return to the lineup.
Samsonov has arguably been the NHL's worst goaltender this season, with a -13.3 GSAx and an .862 save % in 15 appearances. After his disastrous outing in Columbus on December 29, the decision was made to allow Samsonov some time away from the team to help find his game. He did not actually make any AHL starts though, and has not received actual game action since his nightmare performance against Columbus.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all this season's NHL action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Betting on the Leafs to win this game at -200 in Samsonov's return to action is not an overly logical idea. There's a lot of volatility to this game considering how horrific Samsonov was prior to his break, as winning games with that level of play in goal in the NHL is extremely difficult.
My favorite bet for this matchup is backing Samsonov to record under 26.5 saves at anything better than -130.
Save props in the NHL rely more on the expected shot outputs by the opposing team, as opposed to being a fade / buy on a particular goaltenders play. With that said, Samsonov potentially struggling would be a boost in terms of game script and would obviously reduce his saves marginally.
The more important factor is that the Leafs should be capable of holding the Red Wings to a low output of shots on goal here. They have responded well to their more concerning losses this season, and in all other regular seasons in the Sheldon Keefe era.
The Red Wings aren't a team which is likely to generate a lot of shots at even strength, either. This spot should lead to higher attention to detail defensively from the Leafs as they look to give Samsonov a chance to find his form.
Pick: Ilya Samsonov Under 26.5 Saves (-118)
