Sabres vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Sabres Odds | +180 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -225 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
Vegas has been dominant (20-5-5) this season and isn't showing any signs of slowing down after winning six of its past seven outings. So, is there any reason to believe the Sabres might pull off an upset on Friday night? Let's investigate that while previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Sabres vs. Golden Knights prediction.
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres weren't expected to be at Vegas' level going into the campaign, but there was some hope Buffalo might be able to squeak into the playoffs for the first time since 2011. That now seems unlikely after the Sabres got off to a 12-15-3 start, and the offense, which was so good a season ago, has become a key issue.
Buffalo ranks 25th in scoring with 2.83 goals per game. Injuries have played a role in that with Tage Thompson missing nine contests earlier in the campaign and Jeff Skinner now being on the injured reserve due to an upper-body problem, but that's only part of the story. Even when healthy, Thompson and Skinner have seen significant drops in production and the same can be said for Alex Tuch and Dylan Cozens.
To put it into perspective, the 2022-23 Sabres had five players who averaged at least 0.84 points per game. The 2023-24 Sabres have no one scoring at that pace. Rasmus Dahlin is the closest at 0.83 PPG and after that, it drops to Tuch at 0.74 PPG.
Early in the campaign, when Buffalo was treading water at 7-6-1, the Sabres' offense was doing a little better, but the goaltending was holding its own at 3.07 goals allowed per game. Over the past 21 contests, the Sabres have dropped to 3.48 goals allowed per contest. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is likely to get the start, has had a particularly rough time recently, losing his past three appearances while posting a 4.51 GAA and an .833 save percentage. That's dropped him to a 6-6-1 record, a 2.98 GAA and a .901 save percentage in 14 contests this year.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is unlikely to make things easy for Luukkonen. The Golden Knights are solid offensively, ranking 10th with 3.37 goals per game, and have looked even better recently, tallying at least four markers in regulation in each of their past four contests.
Mark Stone was a central figure during that four-game stretch, providing three goals and eight points to propel him to 10 goals and 29 points through 30 outings. Chandler Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault are also hot, each contributing three goals and three assists over the past four contests.
Then there's Jack Eichel, who is a steady threat. He has 12 goals and a team-leading 33 points in 30 appearances this season and is taking an eight-game scoring streak into Friday's action.
Vegas is missing Adin Hill (lower body), so Logan Thompson will likely start against Buffalo. Thompson did allow four goals on 31 shots in a 5-4 overtime win against Calgary on Tuesday, but typically he's better than that, posting a 9-3-3 record, a 2.39 GAA and a .915 save percentage in 16 contests this season.
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Sabres vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers see Vegas as the clear favorite. The Golden Knights have been better offensively, have better goaltending (even with Hill out) and are playing at home, where they're 11-2-2 this season. Meanwhile, the Sabres are 6-8-2 on the road.
The gap between these teams is too significant for me to recommend chasing the high potential payout that would come from taking Buffalo on the moneyline. Instead, I believe selecting the Golden Knights on the puck line is the best play. You could also give some consideration to Over 6.5 goals given how effective the Golden Knights' offense has been recently.
Pick: Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line +112 | Play to +100
