Sabres vs. Lightning Odds
| Sabres Odds | +145 |
| Lightning Odds | -170 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, April 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Sabres vs. Lightning odds have Tampa as a -170 favorite on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 6 goals. Now is the time to buy low in the goal-scoring department, considering the total is set below 6.5 for the first time in over two years in this matchup.
We will head to the player prop market and make a Sabres vs. Lightning pick for Monday.
Buffalo Sabres
Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is slated to guard the cage for Buffalo on Monday evening, and he has certainly undergone a turbulent few weeks recently. Luukkonen has now allowed three or more goals in six of his past 10 starts, posting a 4-5-1 record with a .888 SV% and 3.42 GAA over that stretch.
These struggles are likely to continue against Tampa, a team he is 1-2-1 against in his career with a fade-worthy .833 SV% and 3.54 GAA. To be fair to Luukkonen, he plays behind a defense that surrenders high-danger scoring chances at a high rate.
Entering this matchup, the Sabres rank 22nd in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The team is allowing 3.2 goals per game over its past 11.
Tampa Bay Lightning
If Buffalo surrenders three or more goals once again, then I think Tampa forward Brayden Point will play a role. Point has been tremendous over the past two months, scoring 20 goals over his past 25 games.
He now leads the Bolts with 45 notches this season, but he is also a massive threat on the power play, as he is second on the team in power-play goals. I bring this up because the Sabres rank 22nd in the league in penalty minutes taken per game.
Therefore, we should not be shocked that Point has torched Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, scoring six goals over the past seven meetings. Luukkonen was in net for four of those meetings, and Point scored in two of those games.
Sabres vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
A 50% hit rate in the final sentence of the previous section isn't the craziest trend, but it does the job when you consider that Point's anytime goalscorer prop is priced at +145 via FanDuel for this game. He has thrived in his role of centering the first line between Anthony Duclair and Nikita Kucherov, which isn't shocking considering the latter is one of the best facilitators, if not the best, in the league.
Point and Kucherov also skate together on the first power-play unit, which should bode well in this matchup considering Buffalo's struggles in staying out of the penalty box. It also certainly doesn't help the Sabres' cause that defenseman Mattias Samuelsson remains out with an upper body injury. Samuelsson is arguably the best defensive defenseman on this team.
Pick: Brayden Point Anytime Goalscorer (+145 at FanDuel | Play to +140)
