Sabres vs. Lightning Odds
| Sabres Odds | +136 |
| Lightning Odds | -169 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110/ -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, February 29 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The over has been a profitable bet when these teams have squared off over the past couple of seasons, going 8-3-1 over the past 12 meetings.
Will we see another high-scoring affair? Or can the goaltending step up?
Let's dig into the odds and make a Sabres vs. Lightning pick and prediction in my NHL betting preview.
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo's blue line is filled with guys who are talented offensively. However, this group bleeds high danger scoring chances on the other end of the ice. At 5-on-5, the Sabres rank 27th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
If you have any Buffalo fans in your life, ask them their opinion on Erik Johnson. I digress.
However, this team is due for positive regression offensively, which bodes well for the over in this matchup. Despite the recent lack of offensive production, the Sabres rank 12th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Perhaps Buffalo's expected positive regression on offense will come against a Tampa team that has struggled mightily on the defensive end of the ice and ranks 25th in goals allowed per game.
Surprisingly, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is as much to blame for that ranking as the blue line in front of him. Following his back surgery over the off-season, he's yet to truly get back to form.
Through 35 starts this year, Vasilevskiy possesses a .896 SV%. He enters this matchup in particularly poor form and has allowed four or more goals in four of his past five starts.
Vasilevskiy is 1-4 with a fade-worthy .853 SV% and a 4.44 GAA. Those woes could continue against the Sabres, a team he possesses a .841 SV% against over his past three starts.
It's also worth noting that there were seven or more total goals in all three of those outings.
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Sabres vs. Lightning
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Lightning's offense has been firing on all cylinders and ranks in the top seven in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.
Based on their underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as they also rank in the top half of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. The main concern in taking the over in this contest is goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is slated to start for Buffalo.
I am a big fan of his game and he has been tremendous this season, but Luukkonen has never been able to figure out the Lightning. Through three career starts against Tampa Bay, he is 0-2-1 with a troubling .796 SV% and a 4.24 GAA.
Finally, we are catching a good price on Over 6.5 (+100) at Caesars as that line is two-to-10 cents longer than the rest of the market.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100 at Caesars | Play to -105)
