Senators vs. Blues Odds
| Senators Odds | -110 |
| Blues Odds | -110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -122 / +100 |
After a beatdown in front of their home fans, the Ottawa Senators face the St. Louis Blues. The Senators have rode the struggle bus all season, holding the worst record in the Eastern Conference.
Well, St. Louis certainly made the news on Tuesday. After a loss to the Red Wings (and three losses prior to that), the Blues decided to move on from coach Craig Berube. In his place, Drew Bannister takes over as the bench boss. How will the Blues respond to the sudden changes?
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction for Senators vs. Blues.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators have all the talent in the world, and yet, can’t turn that talent into wins. Tim Stutzle is well on his way to being a superstar, and Claude Giroux has shown he hasn’t lost a step, averaging a point per game.
Beyond them, scoring has been spread across the team, as Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson and Vladimir Tarasenko all have 19 points.
One has to wonder if these struggles are a coaching issue. Ottawa is a bottom-10 team generating 5-on-5 offense and in expected goals, have a 47.38 xGF%. Defensively, it’s not bad, but not great, with a 2.73 xGA/60.
There’s still a lot of work to be done on the special teams end. On the power play, the Senators score at about a 17% clip, and the penalty kill is second worst succeeding 72.3% of the time.
Ottawa has consistently had goaltending issues for years now. Joonas Korpisalo has taken the majority of the reps, but he isn’t exactly running away with the job. Backup Anton Forsberg hasn’t been much to write home about either.
I’m guessing we see Forsberg since Korpisalo started the last two, and they each start in intervals of two. Forsberg has had a poor season to start, with an .885 SV% and a -6.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
St. Louis Blues
The Blues are such an odd team. They have two young stars in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, but Kyrou has been the subject of a lot of defensive miscues and a benching.
Pavel Buchnevich and Jake Neighbours are providing some solid depth scoring, and they have a lot of serviceable vets that can still play in Kevin Hayes and captain Brayden Schenn. The problem is, the results are lacking.
Let’s take a look at the metrics for a minute. St. Louis is the sixth worst team in 5-on-5 offensive efficiency with a 47.14 xGF%. Defensively, it’s just as bad, if not worse, ranking 30th with a 3.03 xGA/60.
Special teams don’t do the Blues any favors either, only scoring a porous 8.43% on the power play. The penalty kill hasn’t been great either, succeeding only 78% of the time.
It may be safe to assume that Jordan Binnington starts in tonight’s matchup, as he’s received the brunt of the starts.
Senators vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
FanDuel has this match pretty even with both sides slated for -110 odds. I think that sounds about right given the current condition of both teams.
I may lean toward the Blues here. Anytime a coach is fired, teams either get blown out or come out inspired. St. Louis also has the goaltending advantage, which is most important here. While Binnington has struggled in his past three starts, he’s certainly the better goalie of either Korpisalo or Forsberg.
Ottawa may have the advantage in even-strength offense, but right now, the Sens are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. They’re also incredibly inconsistent and don’t know how to win.
Coach Berube was loved in the locker room, but the message may have flatlined toward his departure. I’m expecting the Blues to come out hot and stomp the Senators.
Pick: St. Louis Blues Moneyline -110
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