Senators vs. Penguins Odds
| Senators Odds | +125 |
| Penguins Odds | -151 |
| Over / Under | 7 -123 / +102 |
Ottawa will look to turn the tide on what has been a nightmare week with a win as a road underdog in Pittsburgh on Saturday. Both sides enter at 3-4-0 and project to be competitors in the Eastern Conference wild card race this season.
Ottawa Senators
In just over a week, the Senators' season outlook has changed significantly. Last Wednesday, Ottawa smoked Washington 6-1, making it three straight multi-goal victories. The Senators were 3-1-0 and -130 to make the playoffs. Well, their price to make the playoffs has moved all the way to +130 due to a nightmare string of events.
The Senators have lost three straight games, but the greater concern lies with a roster outlook has changed considerably for the time being.
Top defender Thomas Chabot was injured in Thursday's matchup versus New York, as was defender Erik Brannstrom. Artem Zub has been a quietly strong defender for Ottawa, but will miss this matchup. Center Shane Pinto was also suspended 41 games for violating the NHL's gambling rules.
The Senators have played a strong team game to this point. They own an xGF% of 53.18 and have seen excellent play from top scorers Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle.
Prior to Chabot's injury, he and Jake Sanderson had started to dominate minutes together on Ottawa's top defensive pairing. They owned a 57.1% expected goals rating in 30.1 minutes.
Ottawa's main concern prior to the stockpile of injuries was its struggles in net. Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo have combined for a -4.4 goals saved above expected rating.
Korpisalo played well against the Islanders on Thursday, making saves on 35-of-38 shots. It's likely he'll be offered a chance to follow up that performance with a start Saturday.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins made meaningful changes to their roster this offseason, but some of the same concerns we saw last year have reoccured in an uneven opening to the season and their 3-4-0 record has included ugly losses to Chicago and St. Louis.
It was speculated that the addition of Ryan Graves and a potentially improved bottom six would help Pittsburgh improve. The Penguins did display strong defensive strides in Thursday's shutout win over the Avalanche and saw more strong play from the newly formed third line of Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller and Radim Zohorna.
Through seven games, the Penguins overall process has been solid, even if their defensive miscues have garnered a lot of headlines. They have played to a 53.06% expected goals for and have generated offensive chances at a high rate. In fact, they own the third-highest xGF/60 rating (3.89).
Finishing offensive chances doesn't project to be a flaw for the high-powered Penguins, who feature superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Tristan Jarry was excellent against the Avalanche and should get the start Saturday. Jarry owns a +0.9 GSAx rating and a .917 save % in five games this season.
Senators vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
The handicap here is quite simple — Ottawa is missing three regular defenders at the same time and oddsmakers aren't moving the number enough. Losing Chabot at any point would be significant, but losing him while Zub and Brannstrom are also sidelined compounds the issue considerably.
The Penguins played their best game of the season against Colorado on Thursday and are being offered a great spot to build upon that. They haven't been great defensively and that flaw is concerning versus the Senators, but this is a great matchup for Pittsburgh's elite forwards.
Betting the Penguins to win this game at anything better than -165 provides value. Betting the over at 6.5 is also a reasonable look, but the numbers are just slightly too juiced.
This also looks like a spot where the best numbers to bet Ottawa will be available closer to puck drop. If you wan to back the Senators, wait as long as possible for the best odds.
