Stars vs. Canadiens Odds
| Stars Odds | -220 |
| Canadiens Odds | +180 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Montreal Canadiens on Saturday, February 10 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Despite a hiccup Wednesday in Toronto with backup Scott Wedgewood in goal, the Stars own a record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 and sit on top of the Central division as a result.
At 21-21-8, the Canadiens are on pace to cruise past their preseason betting total of only 71.5 points. 2022 first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky has shown significant progress as the season has moved along and a well-timed trade of Sean Monahan drew the team a first-round pick.
There's lots of positivity surrounding the league's most storied franchise ahead of this matchup, but oddmakers still aren't buying the legitimacy of the current on-ice product and price Montreal as +170 underdogs Saturday versus a high-quality Stars team.
Dallas Stars
Oddsmakers are giving respect to the Stars' strong recent play and the upside of the current roster, as they have trended down to a consensus number of +1200 to win it all. Their price reduction also comes because they have improved their position in the Central division race, and they are now more likely to avoid a tough first-round matchup.
Less than two seasons ago Jake Oettinger played one of the best playoff series in recent memory versus the Flames as a 23-year-old. He followed that up with a +11.8 GSAx and .919 save % last season and entered this year as a trendy Vezina pick playing behind a quality Stars team.
He has played to a save % of only .905 and GSAx of -1.1 across 29 games played this season. He looked like his former self Tuesday versus Buffalo though, stopping 47-of-48 shots to steal his side a win. Given that backup Scott Wedgewood played the following night in Toronto, we should count on Oettinger playing Saturday.
Away from potential improvement in terms of the goaltending situation, there is still of cause for optimism surrounding the Stars entering the seasons back half. Matt Duchene continues to lead one of the best second lines in hockey, Wyatt Johnston has fit in exceptionally on the top unit and overall they hold three units producing at higher than league-average rates.
Even if Jason Robertson is closer to the player we have seen throughout this season than what he was in last year's 109-point campaign, there is plenty talent littered among the roster to remain a top-five offense the rest of the way.
The Stars' dominant stretch of results comes with a solid underlying process, including an expected goals for percentage of 55.19 over the last 10 games. Given that the current roster holds little in the way of clear flaws, it makes sense to believe they will own more of the overall run of play.
Montreal Canadiens
While there is lots of cause for optimism around the Habs moving forward, they continue to have still been getting caved in on a nightly basis, which has been hidden to an extent by elite goaltending, and a strong record in close contests. Dragging 17-of-50 games to an overtime session doesn't hurt either.
Their -36 goal differential is tied for the fourth-worst mark in the league.
It is clear that coach Martin St. Louis has drawn a professional work-rate from his team on average, and they do have the ability to succeed in a rope-a-dope style of play. A lack of effort from the current roster hasn't been the cause of the team's modest results, as they are out-performing expectations to an extent and have fought through a lengthy list of injuries.
With Sean Monahan dealt in a trade that involved no roster pieces coming the Canadiens' way, their forward depth had truly hit a dreadful new low out of the All-Star break. Alex Newhook is set to return to the lineup tomorrow and will likely immediately be offered a big role given their current center depth.
In 14 games since the turn of the New Year, the Canadiens own an xGF% of only 37.67 and have allowed 36.24 shots against per 60.
So while there are some key positives going on, such as noted development from Slafkovsky and even Captain Nick Suzuki, the greatest positive surrounding the Canadiens has been the lights-out play of Sam Montembeault in goal. It's safe to say that without Montembeault's play this team would be looking far less competitive, as he has put up a +14.3 GAR and .907 save % in 24 appearances.
On a per-game average he has faced the most shots in the NHL, and chances are that average could rise Saturday as he has been confirmed as the Canadiens starter in this tough matchup.
Stars vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Canadiens have been getting completely caved in over the last month of action, and they should struggle with the Stars' deep offensive attack. Sam Montembeault is one of the best goaltenders in the league, and he is liable to steal any game.
With that in mind, though, I still can't see how the Canadiens have the 36.4% chance their betting price suggests, and I make this closer to -230.
Particularly on the nights when Oettinger is in goal, we should see the Dallas roster continue to build its cup contender case down the stretch. Whether you want to back the Stars to win in regulation, to cover the puck line or just with standard moneyline, I do not believe they are a big enough favorite in this contest at the current -210.
Pick: Dallas Stars -1.5 (+120 via bet365, play to +110)
