Stars vs Golden Knights Odds
| Stars Odds | +104 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NHL Odds here. | |
The Vegas Golden Knights got off to a good start in their Western Conference Finals showdown against the Dallas Stars. The Pacific Division winners outlasted their opponent and beat the Stars 4-3 in overtime of Game 1.
Now, Vegas looks to back Dallas into a corner and take the first two games before the series shifts back to Texas, as we make a Stars vs. Golden Knights pick for Game 2.
Irrespective of venue, the Golden Knights have been to beat. However, they've been particularly assertive at home. The Stars will need to lean into their defensive structure to limit Vegas' attack. Thankfully, they've got a secret weapon to deploy.
Dallas Stars
Dallas' defensive structure has been its strength all season. The Stars ended the regular season with the seventh-fewest high-danger chances against and third-fewest scoring opportunities allowed. More importantly, they've maintained that standard throughout the postseason.
Opponents are averaging a paltry 7.7 high-danger and 22.9 scoring chances per game. Reflected in that is an impressive six-game stretch in which Dallas help teams to six or fewer quality opportunities and 18 or fewer scoring chances. Dallas must lean into that strength to hamper a deep Golden Knights squad at home.
If the Stars' defensive shell collapses, they could turn to Jake Oettinger as a last line of defense. Oettinger has gone berserk following a loss. Dating back to the start of the regular season, the American netminder is an absurd 22-1-3 with a sparkling 93.3% save percentage following a loss. Included in that is a 5-0 record in the playoffs with a 92.9% save percentage.
The Stars have the pieces to rebound with a stout effort at T-Mobile Arena.
Vegas Golden Knights
Although we've seen the Golden Knights succeed offensively, they wouldn't be in the conference finals without their own solid defensive play. Vegas hampered two offensive darlings — the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers — through the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Stars scored three goals in the series opener, but substantially overachieved relative to the expected metrics.
Vegas held the Stars to a minuscule five high-danger and 21 scoring opportunities on Friday night, yielding a projected 1.57 goals-for. Dallas compensated for its limited production with an above-average shooting percentage, but that's an unsustainable way of staying competitive. Given the Golden Knights' track record of limiting opponents, I'm not expecting a more robust showing from the visitors.
The Golden Knights have held opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in only two of their 12 postseason games. Predictably, that's reduced the chances allowed per game, with opponents averaging 8.3 quality and 22.4 scoring opportunities per contest. That advantage has been even more pronounced at home, with those metrics dropping to 7.4 and 20.1, respectively.
Defense has propelled the Golden Knights into the third round, and I'm expecting more of the same Sunday.
Stars vs. Golden Knights Pick
Once again, solid defensive zone play will be an emphasis in Game 2. We saw the Knights and Stars maintain that structure on Friday night, but it didn't impact scoring. Both teams overachieved relative to expected metrics, sending the game over the total. Goals will be hard to come by with sustained defensive pressure. Further, we've seen strong goalie play from both sides throughout the playoffs.
Taking the Golden Knights as short home favorites is tempting, but I'll take a stance on the under instead as I expect both teams to play to their strengths in a pivotal matchup.
Pick: Under 5.5 |
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