Stars vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Stars Odds | -115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 6 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about Stars vs. Golden Knights Game 3 on Saturday, April 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Stars entered the playoffs as co-favorites to win the Western Conference after their 113-point regular season. But suddenly they are situated with what is essentially a must-win Game 3 as they head to T-Mobile Arena down 2-0.
Let's get into my NHL betting preview for this pivotal Game 3, and my Stars vs. Golden Knights predictions.
Dallas Stars
The Stars have to feel a little hard done by to run into a suddenly healthy Vegas team, especially given the Knights arguably offer more roster talent now than last year's team that made a Stanley Cup run.
On top of that, a 2-0 deficit given the way the games in Dallas went is pretty unlucky as the Stars owned 52.40% of the expected goal share in those matchups.
The Stars have yet to get meaningful offensive contributions from their top stars. Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson each had lackluster games in Dallas. They have historically been playoff performers though, and it is reasonable to think they bounce back.
On defense, Dallas has been solid. It defended quite well despite allowing four goals in Game 1 — maintaining that form is going to be a key in a tough road environment.
Jake Oettinger continues to post underwhelming results relative to his potential. He owns a .905 save % this season, which only earns him a slightly below-average GSAx because of how strong the Stars have defended.
However, if Oettinger can find his "A" game, the Stars can easily make a deep run.
Vegas Golden Knights
It was difficult to project just how good the Golden Knights truly would be this postseason. They played to a below-.500 mark for over a third of the regular season, but that was largely due to a plethora of roster absences.
It also seemed there was a greater level of complacency after last year's long playoff run. But through two games, it has become clear the Knights truly were a sleeping giant.
Shockingly enough, it looks like captain Mark Stone has been ready to go for a while. Noah Hanifin has been excellent on the blue line while Tomas Hertl has added offensive punch, as expected.
On the goaltending front, Vegas has benefited from Logan Thompson reclaiming the form that made him an All-Star in 2022-23 given that Adin Hill faltered down the stretch.
Thompson has played to a .908 save % and 2.70 GAA this season — he gets the start for tonight's matchup.
Stars vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Stars are not necessarily worthy of being down 2-0 in this series as they were a bit unlucky to not split. They proved to be the best team in the West over 82 games, and I still believe they are a truly elite side.
This price is a massive adjustment compared to Game 2, when the Stars closed as -170 favorites. That is an overreaction and I think there is now value in backing the Stars in a do-or-die spot.
I will continue to mention why home ice is overvalued in the playoffs, and why that presents good betting opportunities on road teams. Road teams went 42-36 in last year's playoffs, and they are 12-11 this postseason.
The reasons I like the Stars to win Game 3 do not revolve around any kind of questions about Vegas. At this point, this is clearly just a Conference Final-level matchup happening in Round 1.
That's why I see value in backing the Stars to go all the way to win the Stanley Cup at +2500. If they can rally against Vegas, they will likely go back to being power rated as No. 1 in the West.
There is also value backing in Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (for playoff MVP) at +2200. Eichel is clearly the Knights' best skater, and if they are able to go back-to-back, the chances he is MVP are higher than that price suggests.
Picks:
- Dallas Stars to win Game 3 -110 (bet365, Play to -115)
- Stars to Win Cup +2500 (BetRivers, Play to +2100)
- Jack Eichel to win Conn Smythe Trophy +2200 (FanDuel)
