Oilers vs. Stars Odds
| Stars Odds | +116 |
| Oilers Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -106o / -114u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Oilers vs. Stars odds for Game 6 on Sunday, June 2.
The Stars were in a solid position through three games of the Western Conference Final, but the Oilers have reversed their fortunes with two decisive victories.
With Dallas' season on the line going into Game 6, let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Oilers vs. Stars prediction tonight.
Dallas Stars
If you're looking for the starkest difference between Dallas over the past two games compared to the first three contests of this series, it's that the Stars' offense has collapsed. That's not a surprising statement given Dallas has scored just three goals over the past two games, but it gets worse when you dig a little deeper.
Dallas had an xG between 2.92 and 3.68 in each of the first three tilts of the Western Conference Final, which is fairly decent (for context, Dallas' xG/60 in the regular season was 3.41). However, the Stars had an xG of 1.95 in Game 4 and 1.99 in Game 5 of this series, indicating they weren't challenging Stuart Skinner nearly enough.
You'd also come to that conclusion just by looking at shot totals. The Oilers goaltender has faced only 42 shots over the past two contests. Skinner has been largely good enough in the Western Conference Final, but he's far from unbeatable, and if Dallas can put the pressure on him, this series might still go the Stars' way.
There is no shortage of Dallas forwards who need to do more, but one of the big ones is Jason Robertson. He was the hero of Game 3 with a hat trick, but rather than build off that success, he has been held off the scoresheet over the past two contests and has now found the back of the net in just one of his past 13 appearances.
Joe Pavelski is also stuck in a cold spell. After finishing the regular season second among the Stars with 67 points (27 goals) across 82 outings, the 39-year-old has no points and a minus-4 rating across five playoff appearances versus Edmonton.
Matt Duchene has also failed to provide even a single point in this series after completing the 2023-24 campaign with 25 goals and 65 points in 80 regular-season games.
A key strength of the Stars is their offensive depth, but when so many of their top forwards go cold at the same time, depth is not enough.
Edmonton Oilers
At the same time, Edmonton is getting help from its secondary scorers. Connor Brown, Adam Henrique, Philip Broberg, Ryan McLeod, Mattias Janmark and Mattias Ekholm have each found the back of the net in this series, elevating the Oilers to 11 different players with at least a goal in the Western Conference Final, while Dallas has seven.
Given the matchup was supposed to be Edmonton's star power vs. Dallas' depth, the fact that the Oilers have more of their team contributing on offense has to be deeply satisfying for them.
Edmonton's stars have been stepping up too, though to varying degrees. Dallas has managed to contain Leon Draisaitl to two goals and three points across five games, which is no small feat, but Connor McDavid hasn't been slowed, providing two goals and eight points in the same span. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have also made their presence felt in this series, each supplying two goals and two assists, while offensive defenseman Evan Bouchard has a goal and five points against Dallas.
The Oilers have also been the more consistent team offensively. While the results haven't been there for Edmonton in every game, it has finished with an xG of at least 3.26 in each contest of the series. Edmonton has also now beaten the Stars in terms of expected goals in all of the past four games, and over the past two contests, the gap has been a combined 6.99-3.94 in favor of the Oilers.
When he's at his best, Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger is able to potentially steal wins for Dallas if the rest of the team can at least keep the expected goals somewhat close, but the Stars just haven't been able to get much going recently.
Stars vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Dallas tends to be an especially strong road team with a 26-10-5 away record in the regular season and a 6-2 showing in the playoffs. The Stars also showed resiliency by overcoming a 2-0 series deficit against Vegas in the first round. So there is some hope of the Stars rebounding in Game 6 despite their recent underwhelming play.
I expect the Stars to come out stronger with their season on the line, and make life tougher for Skinner.
Will that be enough to win the day? I'm not sure. But coupled with Edmonton's strong attack, it should be enough to at least drive the score above the Over 5.5 goals.
