Wild vs. Avalanche Odds, Preview
| Wild Odds | +195 |
| Avalanche Odds | -240 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche on Friday, March 8 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Minnesota Wild are desperately clinging to their postseason aspirations. Heading into Friday's action, the Wild sit seven points back of the final wild card spot with 19 games to play. Moreover, they'll have to leapfrog from four teams to usurp the Vegas Golden Knights and claim the final playoff berth. But a win on Friday could make a big difference for them.
Standing in their way is the mighty Colorado Avalanche. The Avs have been busy this week bolstering their roster as they try to take a run up the Central Division standings and claim their fourth straight division title. Like the Wild, though, Colorado has a couple of foes standing in its way.
That makes tonight's Central Division showdown a crucial test for both teams as they test their postseason resolve against an equally desperate rival. So, let's get to my Wild vs. Avalanche preview.
Minnesota Wild
Defense remains the foundation of the Wild's success. Minnesota leads the league in high-danger chances allowed per game, giving up a paltry 7.7. Likewise, they've been nearly as stingy in preventing scoring opportunities, limiting opponents to 20.0 and ranking seventh in the NHL. But they've tightened those standards more recently in the hopes of rescuing their fading playoff chances.
High-danger chances have been in short supply for teams trying to crack Minnesota's defensive shell. Over their last six games, the Wild have limited all but one opponent to nine or fewer quality opportunities for an average of 6.6 per game. As expected, that correlates with diminished production in scoring chances, with Minnesota giving up just 18.5 per game. Surely, that defensive structure will come in handy as they attempt to quell a potent Avs offense.
Minnesota also deserves credit for how it handled its goaltending situation. Skating on the second night of a back-to-back, the Wild started Marc-Andre Fleury on Thursday, saving primary netminder Filip Gustavsson for tonight's contest.
Gustavsson hasn't looked like himself lately, but we do have him earmarked as a progression candidate. Over his past five starts, Gustavsson has posted a meager 85.7% save percentage which is a substantial deviation from his career average of 91.0%.
Inevitably, Gustavsson will benefit from the Wild's improved defensive play and his save percentage should start working its way back up toward career norms. As it does, Gustavsson will keep his team competitive.
Colorado Avalanche
A cursory look over their recent outcomes shows that the Avalanche are building momentum at the right time of year. Winners of four of their past five, the Avs are keeping their Central Division aspirations alive, albeit with some unsustainable metrics.
Colorado's success is contraindicated in its analytics. The Avalanche have been outplayed in three of their previous five, underscoring some concerning metrics. Cumulatively, the playoff-bound Avs have a 53.1% expected goals-for rating over that stretch, but some of the shine wears off when we adjust for opponents.
Not only were they outplayed in three of five, but two of those games came against the NHL-worst Chicago Blackhawks. Inevitably, Colorado could be spiraling toward a correction phase.
The anticipated regression is also reflected in the Avs' PDO. Colorado's 5-on-5 shooting percentage has spiked to 12.2% over the five-game sample, above its season-long average of 9.5%. Consequently, their PDO has risen to a mind-numbing 1.090, putting the Avalanche on the precipice of regression.
Altogether, the Avs have been able to walk away victorious while playing against inferior opponents. We're expecting a few tough losses to pile up for the Avalanche as they enter a cooling-off period. Simply, they can't continue to get outplayed and steal wins, especially against tougher competition.
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Wild vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
Friday's Central Division tilt may be tighter than the betting line implies. The market has taken a firm stance on the Avs at home; however, their success isn't reflected in their underlying metrics. Colorado has relied on improved output to offset their worsening on-ice product.
Conversely, the Wild have ratcheted up their defensive play, yielding expected goals-for ratings above 70.0% in two of their last three.
Those waves collide in what's expected to be a tightly contested affair at Ball Arena. As both teams fight for critical points to move up the standings, we're betting this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout. You can get it at +380 right now, but it's worth playing at +350 or better.
Pick: 60-Minute Tie (+380)
