Wild vs Jets Odds
| Wild Odds | +125 |
| Jets Odds | -150 |
| Over / Under | 6 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Minnesota Wild vs. Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, February 20 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two intra-division rivals and geographic enemies battle it out for valuable position in the Central Division standings as the Winnipeg Jets host the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday.
Coincidentally, both teams come into tonight's showdown on the second night of a back-to-back. The Jets were humbled against the Calgary Flames on Monday, dropping a 6-3 decision at the Saddledome.
On the other bench, the Wild put up a crooked 10-7 victory over the visiting Vancouver Canucks, giving them a 5-0-1 record after the All-Star break.
The betting market has installed the Jets as moderate home favorites, but that trust might be misplaced. Minnesota is running hot over its recent sample, and that success is backed up with solid underlying metrics.
Minnesota Wild
Granted, giving up seven goals isn't a good look; still, the Wild deserve all the credit for beating the best team in the NHL at their own game.
Down 5-3 heading into the third, Minnesota stormed back with seven third-period goals to steal the victory from the Canucks. Although the Wild were outplayed in the contest, their effort reflected a few promising trends.
Namely, the Wild have been suffocating their opponents with a stifling brand of defensive hockey.
Minnesota has limited all six opponents it's faced after the All-Star break to nine or fewer high-danger chances and 25 or fewer scoring opportunities. More impressively, those averages have plummeted to 6.0 and 16.7, respectively.
As expected, that correlates with fewer goals against, with only one of its last six opponents recording more than two goals at 5-on-5.
The more pronounced advantage, though, is that improved defensive effort correlates with a more robust expected goals-for ratings. The Wild have outplayed four of their last six opponents, yielding a cumulative 58.4% percentage. That puts them ahead of their yearly average of 50.2% and gives them third-best in the NHL over that stretch.
Altogether, Minnesota has turned a corner with its recent performances, and we're expecting that to continue on Tuesday night.
Winnipeg Jets
Unfortunately for the Jets, they don't get to brag about the same success as their Tuesday night counterparts. Winnipeg has faltered lately, going 3-5-1 over its past nine.
Considering the current state of their analytics, that downfall is expected to continue.
The Jets have looked out of sorts lately. The former Atlanta Thrashers have reverted to their old ways, getting outplayed in three of their previous four. Worse, the only team they outplayed over that modest stretch is the lowly San Jose Sharks, representing one of the Jets' few wins over the last couple of weeks.
Winnipeg has seemingly abandoned any semblance of defensive structure. Three of the last four teams it's faced have attempted 10 or more high-danger shots and 22 or more scoring opportunities, with respective averages of 11.0 and 23.8.
Furthermore, the Jets can't muster the offensive wherewithal to offset those deficiencies, getting out-chanced in all but one of those outings.
Heading into a crucial battle against the Wild, the Jets are mired in a correction phase, and there's no end in sight for when they may reverse course.
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Wild vs Jets
Betting Pick & Prediction
You wouldn't know it from looking at the betting price, but these teams are positioned on opposite ends of the analytics spectrum.
On the ineffective end, you have a Jets team that's consistently getting outplayed and showing no signs of improvement. Conversely, the Wild have hit their stride out of the All-Star break, making a move up the Central Division standings.
As such, we're using this opportunity to back the underdog Wild, expecting them to give Winnipeg more than it can handle. You can still find this line at +140, but this is a playable advantage all the way down to +120.
