Wild vs. Stars Odds
| Wild Odds | +160 |
| Stars Odds | -194 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104 / -128 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars on Wednesday, Jan. 10 – our expert NHL prediction and pick – including tonight's bet for Jesper Wallstedt's NHL debut.
Due to arguably the NHL's worst injury situation, the Wild have now lost five of six matchups, immediately after a tremendous start to the John Hynes era.
Highly touted goaltending prospect Jesper Wallstedt will make his debut for the Wild, who will look to avenge a 4-0 defeat in the first leg of this home-and-home set.
The Stars own an excellent record of 12-7-2 at home this season, and they will be well situated to build upon that home success while skating as heavy favorite tonight.
Minnesota Wild
It would make a lot of sense for the Wild to look to again play a battened-down, sharp defensive game in this spot to limit mistakes that lead to odd-man rushes and more open play.
They will have several players skating higher in the lineup than usual, and typically those skaters will err on side of simple, safer plays when possible. That's especially true since having Jesper Wallstedt get shelled in his NHL debut would be a disaster.
Wallstedt was selected 20th overall in the 2021 draft, and he has continued to raise his stock since that point.
Wallstedt owns a 2.54 GAA and .917 save % in 20 games with the Iowa Wild this season. Those marks are especially impressive considering Iowa is a well-below-average AHL side.
It's realistic to think Wallstedt can outperform Marc-Andre Fleury the rest of the way; we have seen less highly regarded goaltenders make the jump to the NHL effectively.
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The first leg of this home-and-home offered a perfect case for why Jasper Wallstedt could potentially perform well in this spot: Stars AHL goaltender Matt Murray put up a 23-save shutout.
Giving that start to Murray allowed 31-year-old backup Scott Wedgewood some extra rest, which hopefully will lead to a better outing in tonight's matchup.
Due to the injury to Jake Oettinger, Wedgewood played in 11 straight contests, and he had begun to struggle mightily.
Wedgewood's GSAx has dropped all the way down to -9.8 with an .894 save % in 18 appearances this season. Both of those marks have taken significant hits over the last two weeks of action, but before that, he had been far better than a backup option over the last two seasons.
It will be interesting to watch if his form bounces back when he returns to a more standard workload.
In the last 10 games, the Stars own a 58.64% expected goals rating, and they have been excellent defensively with a GA/60 of just 2.48.
The loss of top defender Miro Heiskanen would sound downright horrifying in previous years, but there are sound arguments as to why the Stars' high-level play can hold in his absence. Heiskanen had not been nearly as dominant as we have usually seen before his injury.
His absence opens up ice time for Thomas Harley, who has been tremendous this year and deserves a bigger role.
Wild vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's easier said than done to shut down the Stars' high-powered attack, which features three offensive lines with legitimate scoring upside.
Sharp defensive play should be the greatest focus for the Wild entering this matchup, though. The offensive upside of their current lineup is quite capped. Their current makeup has been reflected with lower-scoring matchups recently, and I do think that is a function of how they have to win games with a depleted lineup.
Having their top goaltending prospect make his debut should provide some added focus toward playing a sound game defensively. Wallstedt is more than capable of saving the chances he is supposed to, and if anything, he has the potential to be a better-than-average goalie this season.
Scott Wedgewood has been awful recently, but this has been his worst sample of play over the last two seasons. It conveniently coincides with far greater use than he has seen recently, so don't be surprised if he bounces back with a better outing after some much-needed rest.
There is some sound logic that suggests this matchup will be a lower-scoring battle like we saw in the first leg of the home-and-home.
A total of 6.5 is too high in this matchup, and I believe this should be set at 6. Betting the under 6.5 at anything better than -130 provides value.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-122 at BetRivers) | Play to -130
