Check out Nicholas Martin's NHL best bet tonight with his Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 6 pick and prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend what has been the only truly compelling Eastern Conference series with a win at home tonight.
History suggests a Leafs letdown might be on the horizon, though; they've lost seven straight elimination games on home ice.
Boston Bruins fans can't feel entirely at ease with their recent playoff history entering this matchup, either. They offered a 3-1 collapse in last season's first round against the Panthers, and they fell to Carolina in the first round the year before.
Here's how I'm targeting tonight's pivotal Bruins (-125) vs. Maple Leafs (+105) Game 6 with a two-leg same-game parlay available at bet365.
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Will this Leafs team finally author a different story against the Bruins? It's possible, and this game serves as a good time to note that trends such as the "Leafs elimination game home losing skid" are never a lock to continue, as many bettors tend to believe. Based on that type of thinking, Tampa was guaranteed last year's first round against Toronto because that is what history suggested.
In coach Sheldon Keefe's tenure as Leafs head coach, the most critical playoff games have generally played out in the same fashion. They have consistently been low-scoring games, usually decided by one-goal margins.
Every game of the Leafs series against Florida last year stayed Under 6.5, and there was only a single win by more than one goal. Four of the five games in this year's series have been decided by two or fewer, with an average total of 4.8 goals scored.
The Leafs' narrative of being unable to defend effectively continues to be overstated. When the games have mattered, it's been the team's inability to create timely offense that has resulted in losses.
The Leafs' defense core has not been very good in recent years, but not in the way that more casual observers tend to think. Their blue line has consistently lacked quality puck-movers to help drive offensive play, and Keefe has erred on the side of conservative plays.
At even strength, the Leafs have allowed just 2.26 xGA/60 in this series, and the eye test would tell you at even strength they are giving up very little. Despite sub-par goaltending overall and two empty netters, they have still allowed only 3.20 goals against.
A 3.20 GAA might be good enough to win in some of the other first-round series, but Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins have given up next to nothing. The Bruins have been sharp defensively, allowing only 2.30 xGA/60 at even strength. Swayman has played to a +9.6 GSAx and .952 save % so far in the series.
Under Keefe, the Leafs' playoff games have followed a very consistent script, and this has held true in this series against the Bruins. At this point, the script seems unlikely to flip.
There are a lot of ways that you could attack the idea that this is going to be a low-scoring affair in which one team likely wins by two or fewer.
My favorite angle is backing the game to stay Under 6.5 and the Bruins +2.5 goals at -125 (via bet365). Even if the Leafs play their best game, I hardly see them winning by more than two with how the Bruins have defended in front of a red-hot Swayman. We should expect another solid defensive performance from the Leafs, though, and if they can avoid allowing numerous power-play goals like we saw in Game 5, this total should safely stay Under 6.5.
Best bet: SGP – Under 6.5 & Bruins +2.5 (-125 at bet365) | Play to -130
