Due to a couple of postponements earlier in the year, the NHL's regular season will go one day longer than originally planned.
That gives us one more opportunity to find some value in the player prop market and cap off a strong week.
NHL Best Bets For Friday, April 14
Kirill Marchenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125), Anytime Goalscorer +200
| Sabres vs. Blue Jackets | |
| Puck Drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers, FanDuel |
Kirill Marchenko has had an excellent rookie season, bagging 25 goals in 58 games while skating on a very bad Blue Jackets roster.
Due to his strong play, Marchenko has slowly taken a stranglehold of more favorable usage as the season has moved along.
With Patrik Laine sidelined, Marchenko is the main trigger man on Columbus' top powerplay unit and continues to skate on the top line alongside Johnny Gaudreau.
Tonight's matchup presents a really strong spot for the Blue Jackets' offense, as the Sabres head into town on night two of a back-to-back with a game total set way up at 7.
Marchenko has averaged 3.2 shots on goal per game over his last 10 while cashing the over 2.5 in seven out of 10 games.
The most important thing when we look recent trends — as listed above — is that bettors are considering whether or not the marks should logically continue moving forward or not.
In Marchenko's case, it is an easy case to say he should average over 2.5 shots on goal in favorable matchups, especially given his current role on the team.
With only four assists to go alongside his 21 goals, it is pretty clear what his offensive mentality is. You do not need to tell Marchenko twice to fire the puck, and it's not surprising to find out his idol growing up was Alex Ovechkin.
20 games into next season, I bet we see Marchenko's shot prop number set at 3.5. This is a good time to target it one last time this year while the over 2.5 is not too juiced.
Putting a smaller stake on anytime goal is another look I am interested in, as Marchenko has been generating quality chances of late despite being a little snake-bitten in front of goal. +200 is somewhat of a buy-low price considering the strong matchup versus high-flying Buffalo.
Casey Mittelstadt Over 0.5 Points -150, Alex Tuch Anytime Goalscorer +138
| Sabres vs. Blue Jackets | |
| Puck Drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings, FanDuel |
I was already licking my chops at the potential of betting Tage Thompson to score three times to hit the 50-goal plateau versus a Blue Jackets side allowing a wealth of goals this season.
It wasn't meant to be, however, as Thompson is going to sit out this contest, which will open up a key role for Casey Mittelstadt on Buffalo's dominant powerplay.
When given an opportunity, Mittelstadt has done well on the top unit this season, finding success when Jeff Skinner was suspended and when Thompson has been in and out of the lineup.
He has also secured a role on Buffalo's top even-strength line, which has been the cause for his increased recent production. He enters with 15 points over the last 10 games and has recorded a single point in nine of those matchups.
Tonight is a great spot to stay hot in Columbus, and I still see value to bet him to record a single point at -150.
Mittelstadt over 1.5 points and to record a powerplay point will be prices I keep my eye on if they are available later on, as well.
Another member of the Sabres who should thrive alongside Mittelstadt on the top powerplay and top line at even strength is Alex Tuch. I think betting him to break through with a goal in tonight's season finale at +138 is a good bet.
Tuch has put 27 shots on net over the last seven games, but has not broken through with a goal since his hat-trick in Philly.
With Jon Gillies making the start for Columbus, tonight could very well be the night Tuch is able to snap the skid.
Gillies has played to a -1.5 GSAx and .846 save % in two NHL performances this year and owns an .878 save % at the AHL level this season.
