Two of the NHL's Stanley Cup favorites will look to avoid elimination on Sunday in a pair of Game 7 showdowns. First, the Bruins will look to avoid a historic 3-1 collapse to the Panthers in the opening matchup, and we are going to count on some of their top stars to come through in the prop market.
Then the defending champion Avalanche will look to survive a first-round scare from the upstart Kraken in the night cap. Expect one of the usual suspects to do damage for the Avs, while other long-shots for the Kraken are worth some exposure.
NHL Player Props: Sunday, April 30
Brad Marchand to Record Two Points | Marchand and Patrice Bergeron Point Parlay +115
| Panthers vs. Bruins | Boston -220 |
| Puck Drop | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers, bet365 |
The Bruins' defensive zone play has been surprisingly awful in this series, and this is the main reason for a seventh game nobody really expected.
However, the Bruins have had no issues generating efficient offense as they have scored 4.16 goals per game. If the Panthers do steal this game, it will likely happen because they outscored the Bruins instead of shutting down the Boston offense.
Therefore, I want to get involved with some Boston props, and the top even-strength line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Jake DeBrusk is a great target.
Marchand has looked very dangerous in this series, and this is the type of spot where I trust him to make a difference. Bergeron could potentially play his last NHL game tonight if the Bruins lose, but I don't expect him to go quietly.
DeBrusk has proven that he can elevate his game in the postseason while having a knack for the big moments, even in seasons where he was far less productive than this one. You could certainly sway me into a bet on him to score in this Game 7.
The trio has played to a 60% Expected Goals Share in this series and has generated 3.26 Expected Goals per Hour. Their excellent production in Game 6 would have looked even better if not for a tough hand-pass call to bring back Brandon Carlo's second-period goal.
Boston's power play has dominated at 39.1% in the series, which was to be expected considering Florida's lowly penalty kill results in the regular season. Marchand and Bergeron have extreme correlation on the top unit and could cash our points parlay there as well.
If the Bruins are up one or two goals late, Bergeron and Marchand will both be trusted in killing the clock as much as possible in empty net situations. That's another great note for these bets, as I do believe a close Bruins win is the most likely result of this matchup.
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer -115
| Kraken vs. Avalanche | Colorado -210 |
| Puck Drop | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel, bet365* |
Nathan MacKinnon's play in this series has been downright incredible, and he will likely need to continue dominating tonight for the Avs to come away with a win.
When the Avs' top stars are not on the ice, they continue to be significantly outplayed. That makes a perfect game script for MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar to continue their production.
In Game 6, shots were 20-3 in favor of the Avs with MacKinnon on the ice at even strength, and the Avs outscored the Kraken 3-0. MacKinnon has played 23:40 or more in each of the last three games, and expect that to continue tonight.
MacKinnon paces the series with 31 shots through six games. His shot prop is still playable at -160 to go over 4.5, but considering his quality of looks, he has better value at -115 to break through with a goal again.
All props involving Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen are very interesting in this matchup as well. The way each of MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen has dominated and their ridiculous time on ice averages, I do not believe their props should be set close to where they were for average regular season games.
I'll note bet365's price of -105 is technically the best available for MacKinnon as an anytime goalscorer, but that does not count overtime goals. Otherwise, bet on FanDuel at -115.
Pick: Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer |
Morgan Geekie Anytime Goalscorer +850
| Kraken vs. Avalanche | Colorado -210 |
| Puck Drop | 8 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Morgan Geekie has quietly been solid when used up the lineup card this season. He is another of the Kraken's steady secondary scoring threats and is being used in a more central role than we saw much of the season. He sits tied for the team lead with two goals in the series so far and has been a part of their best line analytically.
Jaden Schwartz, Alex Wennberg and Geekie have played to a 70% Expected Goals rating and generated 3.48 xGoals per 60 minutes in the series.
+850 is a great number for someone skating on a strong second line who has legitimate scoring ability.
Pick: Morgan Geekie Anytime Goalscorer |
