Friday's critical Game 3 matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders is a fun opportunity to continue with our new same game parlay series, with one long shot coming in at +600 and an extreme version coming in at +3000.
I think the Isles will find a way to make it a series on home ice tonight, and we are going to look to a few of their biggest names to make a difference.
Same Game Parlay: Hurricanes vs. Islanders
The Parlay: +600 at Bet365
- New York Islanders moneyline
- Brock Nelson over 2.5 shots on goal
- Bo Horvat over 2.5 shots on goal
New York Islanders Moneyline
A split in Carolina would have been a fair result for the Islanders. Through two games, the expected goals in this series are almost dead even with the Hurricanes sitting at 50.2%. I think the “eye test” matches that number.
So here are the reasons we still like this at -115 – despite the prior argument that the first two games have been close to a coinflip.
Ilya Sorokin offers a significant edge in goal over Antti Raanta. If the Isles continue to hold a fairly even share of the chances, that edge in goal will pay off. Plus, New York has proven to have a legitimate home ice advantage, which is not typically something that will get me to move my numbers much. It's likely they can own a little more of the play tonight as a result.
Teuvo Teravainen is also a notable loss to a Carolina offense that’s already thin on scoring talent.
Brock Nelson Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
The Islanders' second offensive trio of Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall was dominant in Game 2. They played to an 89.7% expected goals rating and out-attempted Carolina 20-6.
Nelson had seven attempts on goal in Game 2 and five in Game 1. He will remain highly involved tonight, and he could ultimately see slightly more favorable matchups with the Isles holding last change on home ice.
New York's power play has also played just eight minutes combined in the first two games. It will likely end up with more PP time on an average night, which boosts Nelson's chances as he is a key competent on the unit.
Bo Horvat Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Bo Horvat cost us this 45-1 look in Game 2, but I still have faith in him enough to make this play. A 38-goal scorer should be able to manage three shots in a do-or-die game, right?
Horvat was on a better than 50-goal pace with the Canucks, but he has offered disappointing production since arriving in Long Island. When true to form, he is a volume shooter.
I think the Isles will lean more heavily upon him and Mat Barzal's line at even strength in this spot, and we could see Horvat break through with a more productive performance.
As with Nelson, Horvat could be aided if the Islanders end up spending a little more time on the power play in this matchup.
Here's our super long-shot variation to play for a very small stake.
The Parlay: +3000 at Bet365
- New York Islanders moneyline
- Brock Nelson over 2.5 shots on goal
- Bo Horvat over 2.5 shots on goal
- Bo Horvat to score a goal
- Mathew Barzal assist
- Under 7.5 goals combined
Chances are if New York wins this matchup, it will still be relatively low scoring, and I think Game 2's 4-3 scoreline will still prove to be an anomaly for the rest of the series.
So while it's counterproductive to need a Horvat goal and Barzal assist, I believe it's still worth adding and takes the parlay from 20-1 to 30-1
Horvat is due for a breakout, and as mentioned above, he should make himself more noticeable tonight. It's likely we see him break through with Barzal grabbing an assist on the marker. The angle is that's how the Isles will break through in what will likely be a tight game.
